The topic of the psychological limit of 45 UAH per dollar is increasingly being discussed in the information space. This benchmark has become the subject of heated debates: will it become a new reality by the end of summer, and how exactly will currency dynamics affect the cost of food products and household appliances in stores?

Sergey Mamedov, Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and Head of the Board of Globus Bank, clarified the situation in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, answering key questions about the exchange rate, savings, and the impact of global fuel prices.

"Managed Flexibility" Mode and Exchange Rate Forecast

The expert immediately dispelled the myth about the inevitability of sharp spikes. According to Mamedov, "jumps" are an atypical scenario. The market, of course, is sensitive to news, the situation at the front, the import of energy equipment, and the regularity of international aid, but it operates in a mode of "managed flexibility".

This strategy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) serves as a protective shell against destructive changes. The exchange rate is not frozen; it can move, but the regulator remains the main player, using tools to smooth out excessive fluctuations.

The official NBU exchange rate on June 29 was already around 44.85 UAH/USD, which means the market is close to the psychological limit. However, as the expert notes, it is not the number "45" itself that is important, but the nature of the changes. A smooth movement by kopecks is not a shock to the economy, but a reason for news. Analysts from Globus Bank forecast that, in the absence of large-scale external or military shocks, by the end of summer the dollar will fluctuate within a conscious corridor, not exceeding the mark of 45.5 UAH/USD.

Hidden Connection: How the Exchange Rate Affects Prices in Stores

The influence of the dollar exchange rate on prices is not always direct, but almost always occurs through the cost price. Even a domestic product can be "tied" to the currency. The following are currently at risk:

  • Fuel and logistics;
  • Imported components and fertilizers;
  • Packaging and equipment;
  • Energy solutions for business.

The mechanism is simple: if fuel becomes more expensive, the cost of transportation increases. If imported materials become more expensive, businesses factor these costs into the final price. In addition, product prices are influenced by the harvest, the stability of energy supply, and military risks. However, a weak hryvnia creates additional pressure on prices, albeit with a time lag: businesses revise their prices not the next day, but with a prolonged exchange rate trend.

Dollar or Deposit: The Mathematics of Savings

The question of where to keep savings — in foreign currency or in a hryvnia deposit — remains relevant. Mamedov advises avoiding extremes and thinking in terms of balance, creating several "baskets" for savings. Currency as a reserve is justified, but buying it in a panic is not the best strategy.

Today, hryvnia deposits remain attractive thanks to the NBU discount rate of 15%. Average rates start from 14% per annum, while maximum offers reach 16.5–17.5%.

The math speaks for itself: if you place 100,000 UAH for six months at 14%, the net income will be about 5,400 UAH. For the purchase of dollars to yield a similar result, the exchange rate would have to rise to 47.4 UAH. With higher deposit rates, this threshold shifts even higher — to 48 UAH. Thus, under current conditions, deposits may turn out to be more profitable than speculative currency purchases.