In the corridors of the Kremlin, there is still a belief in an imminent and complete victory in Donbas. Vladimir Putin, it seems, is convinced that by the autumn of 2026, all territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will be under Moscow's control. This ambitious goal is intended to be a trump card in future negotiations. However, the dry figures cited by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are in sharp contradiction with the optimistic forecasts of the Russian leadership.

The Mathematics of Failure: From 1600 to 100 Square Kilometers

The gap between expectations and reality has become so vast that it can no longer be hidden, even in closed reports. Since the beginning of 2026, the rate of advance of Russian troops in the Donetsk region has dropped to a critical level — only 2.63 square kilometers per day. At such rates, the capture of the remaining part of the region is pushed into a foggy future.

A comparison with the previous year demonstrates a catastrophic drop in the effectiveness of the offensive:

  • During the same period in 2025 (from January to the end of May), Russia captured 1,619 square kilometers of territory.
  • In 2026, this figure plummeted to 104 square kilometers.
  • Even if we take into account territories where Russian troops entered but could not hold, the final figure (628 sq. km) remains several times lower than last year's.

Culture of Lies and Distortion of Facts

ISW analysts draw an alarming conclusion: the Russian command is deliberately painting a distorted picture of events for Putin. Generals, fearing the wrath of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, continue to assert that the Ukrainian army is exhausted, the front is collapsing, and the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are running out. It is precisely this lie that allows the dictator to make increasingly unrealistic demands and distance himself from the possibility of a diplomatic settlement.

Meanwhile, the reality on the front lines tells a different story. As Viktor Trezubov, Head of the Communications Department of the Joint Forces Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, noted, the offensive potential of the Russian occupiers is rapidly melting away. While Moscow builds illusory plans, Ukrainian troops are seizing the initiative, demonstrating successes not seen since the operation in the Kursk region in August 2024.