Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have presented a new detailed report focusing on the prospects for ending active hostilities and the possibility of local agreements between Ukraine and Russia. According to expert assessments, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to an energy truce before the end of the 2026–2027 winter period, as he relies heavily on large-scale long-range strikes against critical infrastructure.

Kremlin Statements and Strike Strategy

Recent statements by Vladimir Putin on September 25 demonstrate Moscow's unwillingness to compromise on halting strikes against energy facilities. The Kremlin leader publicly claimed that Ukraine is allegedly insisting on a suspension of long-range attacks, linking this to the effectiveness of modernized Geran drones. According to his version, the Russian side has every right to continue strikes in response to Kyiv's actions, which Moscow calls provocative. Pro-Kremlin military bloggers also emphasize the need for continued pressure on Ukraine's economic and production potential to weaken its position in potential negotiations.

Collapse of the Victory Theory and Frontline Situation

According to analytical assessments from June 2024, Putin counted on a gradual but steady advance of ground forces that was supposed to shatter Ukrainian defenses. However, by the current year of 2026, this strategy has faced severe difficulties. Since March, Russian units have practically no significant territorial gains, while Ukraine's Defense Forces have been conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions. This state of affairs forces the Kremlin leadership to compensate for failures on the ground through massive terror against the rear regions.

Contradictory Data

There are noticeable discrepancies in the assessments of the current military-political situation between official statements by the Ukrainian leadership and Kremlin rhetoric. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly confirmed Ukraine's full readiness for a mutual energy truce, implying a cessation of strikes on energy facilities by both parties. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal also reported the availability of documents confirming Russia's detailed planning of winter attacks on Ukrainian generation. At the same time, Russian propaganda and military command representatives claim that the initiative comes from Kyiv and that rear-area strikes are supposedly a forced retaliatory measure.

Truce Prospects and U.S. Position

ISW notes that any proposals for a moratorium on energy strikes mediated by the U.S. or Ukraine directly contradict the current plans of the Russian military leadership. Since the Kremlin has reoriented its strategy toward exhausting the rear and forcing capitulation through the destruction of the energy system, the conclusion of such agreements before the end of winter is unlikely. Experts agree that significant progress in the negotiation process should not be expected while the winter long-range campaign continues.