Russia's oil sector is facing unprecedented pressure. In May, crude oil production in the country fell to its lowest level in the last twelve months. The crisis was triggered by drone attacks of unprecedented intensity by Ukraine on the energy infrastructure.
Quota Misses and Production Decline
According to OPEC's monthly report, Russian producers averaged 9.009 million barrels of crude oil per day in May. This figure was lower than the revised April values. Furthermore, the May production volume fell short of the quota established by the agreement between Moscow and OPEC+ allies by 690,000 barrels per day.
The downward trend in production has been observed since the end of 2025. Although the latest drop indicates a slight slowdown in the rate of decline compared to previous months, the situation continues to have a serious impact on global markets. Oil prices remain high, largely due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Escalation of Infrastructure Attacks
In May, Ukraine significantly intensified its offensive against Russian oil assets. At least 31 strikes were carried out on industry facilities during the month. This is the highest monthly figure since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. Kyiv's strategic goal is to limit Moscow's revenues, which depend on high global energy prices.
As Ukrainian forces primarily targeted fuel production facilities, the rate of crude oil refining in Russia fell in June to its lowest level in two decades. Such estimates are provided by EA Analytics, the analytical unit of the consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd.
Logistics Shift: Reorientation to Export
In response to the decline in refining capacity, Russian producers were forced to redirect crude oil to external markets. According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, average four-week seaborne oil shipments rose to 3.64 million barrels per day in the period ending May 31.
For comparison: in the four weeks ending April 17, when Kyiv began attacking export facilities, the average figure was 3.17 million barrels per day. Russia remains one of the world's three largest crude oil producers, and its shipments do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the war with Iran began.
Scale of Losses for Refineries
According to Reuters, Ukraine has already destroyed about a quarter of Russia's oil refineries. The combined capacity of plants that have fully or partially ceased operations exceeds 83 million tons per year. The affected plants provided more than 30% of gasoline production and about 25% of diesel fuel in Russia.
The economic damage from the attacks is already being felt. According to Reuters calculations, in April alone, the plants hit by strikes produced 1 million tons less diesel than usual.