Russia is experiencing a sustained decline in the flow of volunteers into the army. A drop in interest in signing contracts is observed even in regions that have traditionally led in recruitment. This trend is forcing the authorities to seek new, more radical ways to replenish the ranks of the armed forces.
Decline in the Capital and Regions
According to data obtained by the publication "Important Stories" from a source in the Moscow City Hall, the number of people willing to sign a contract has noticeably decreased. Statistics for the last few months vividly demonstrate the problem: if in April the capital sent 1,708 people to the front, in May this figure dropped to 1,378. According to sources, the monthly outflow is a thousand people less than in the same period a year ago. Low recruitment rates persisted in June as well.
Problems with meeting plans are confirmed by sources in military commissariats and military units. Despite the fact that requirements for replenishing the army remain unchanged, fulfilling them is becoming increasingly difficult. A shortage of personnel has arisen even in elite units, such as the "Rubicon" drone unit. Even where contracts are officially offered for only one year, there are still not enough willing candidates.
Rising Recruitment Costs
Against the backdrop of a shortage of volunteers, regions are forced to increase spending on attracting candidates. Financial injections into the recruitment process have more than doubled: average monthly payments to recruiters increased from 358 to 802 million rubles. In total, Russian regions have already paid recruiters no less than 7.7 billion rubles.
Bonuses are received not only by civilian employees but also by representatives of law enforcement agencies, administrations, and military commissariats. In an attempt to stimulate interest in service, the authorities are using direct payments. For example, in the Tyumen region, after increasing the one-time reward to 3 million rubles, the number of applications temporarily doubled.
Recruitment Methods and Deception
In addition to financial incentives, less transparent methods are being used. According to sources, Russians are sometimes recruited for the war under the guise of rear vacancies — as drivers, guards, or construction workers. However, after signing the contract, such employees may be sent to any unit, including combat ones.
Previously, the media and human rights defenders reported cases of forced recruitment of men into service. In particular, in the Penza region, law enforcement officers conducted raids against men with debts and criminal records, pressuring them to sign contracts through threats and detentions.
Discussions on New Mobilization
Against the backdrop of a growing shortage of people, the possibility of a new wave of mobilization is being discussed more frequently in Russian political circles. Eight sources connected to the presidential administration and the security bloc told journalists about such discussions. Although a final decision has not yet been made, the topic is regularly raised at various levels of government.
One of the interlocutors named October — the period after the State Duma elections — as one of the possible dates. The presidential administration is considering various scenarios, and mobilization is one of them. A source involved in recruitment for a state corporation claims that preparations for events that may not officially be called mobilization have been ongoing for several months.
The Kremlin is also considering a softer option to solve the problem — transferring reservists from rear units to combat units. In exchange, some of the already mobilized personnel could be transferred to the rear or demobilized. However, the publication's interlocutors agree on one thing: the shortage of personnel is becoming a critical problem, and current recruitment mechanisms are no longer able to fully cover the army's needs.