Russia is witnessing a steady trend of declining numbers of citizens willing to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense and deploy to fight against Ukraine. According to analysts, this decline began a year ago and is currently gaining momentum.

This is evidenced by a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published by RBC-Ukraine. Experts rely on data provided by the Russian media resource "Vechernye Istori" (Eternal Stories), which analyzed the expenditures of the Russian federal budget.

Statistics: Sharp Drop in Figures

The numbers indicate a serious crisis in the recruitment system. In the first quarter of 2026, 71,200 people received one-time bonuses for signing contracts. This is 20% less than the corresponding figure for 2025.

If looking at the annual breakdown, the situation looks even more alarming for the Russian side:

  • Throughout 2025, 363,900 people signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
  • This is 10% less than in 2024.

ISW analysts note that Moscow is facing increasing difficulties in recruiting personnel against the backdrop of growing losses. To combat the shortage, the Kremlin is forced to allocate reserve funds, increase the size of signing bonuses, and expand so-called "secret mobilization efforts".

The Illusion of Numerical Superiority

Russia continues to try to position its main advantage as numerical superiority. However, reality on the front lines refutes this strategy. The effectiveness of Ukrainian drones and medium-range strikes has neutralized the demoralizing effect of mass numbers.

Ukrainian defense forces are inflicting disproportionately high losses on the Russian army in both personnel and equipment. Consequently, against the backdrop of declining recruitment figures and a rise in casualties, the Kremlin is creating conditions for conducting limited, phased calls of reservists to replenish losses in Ukraine.

Recruitment Abroad: Iran and Africa

In the context of a lack of domestic resources, Russia is actively expanding the geography of recruitment. At the end of 2025, the Center for Strategic Communications (CPD) reported that Moscow launched an active campaign to attract mercenaries in Iran. Leaflets appeared in several cities offering to join the Russian army, proposing $20,000 as a one-time payment and about $2,000 monthly.

Also in May of this year, the Kremlin expanded its network for recruiting foreigners, starting to actively attract citizens of African countries to participate in the war against Ukraine.