An article published in the American publication The American Conservative, known for its proximity to the Republican Party, challenges the dominant narrative among Western elites regarding the conduct of the war on Ukrainian territory. Experts warn: strikes on Russian infrastructure, even with CIA support, are incapable of turning the tide of the conflict but carry a colossal risk of destabilizing the situation up to the point of nuclear weapon use.
From the very beginning of the conflict, there was a consensus among foreign policy elites: the war could be won if the West provided sufficient funding and weaponry. However, as noted in the article, this narrative is now being actively promoted by European "hawks" and the US national security system through Western media. The target of this propaganda is US President Donald Trump, who previously resisted such convictions.
John Mearsheimer's View: The Illusion of Victory
Renowned political scientist John Mearsheimer, commenting on the situation for the publication, stated that new Western commitments to support Ukraine "are unlikely to have any impact on what is happening on the battlefield." In his opinion, further militarization of the conflict will not bring strategic dividends but may have dangerous side effects.
Mearsheimer warns that escalating strikes on Russian rear areas could strengthen the position of hardliners within the Kremlin. In Moscow, they may conclude that the West has "lost its fear of Russia." In such a paradigm, to restore deterrence, the Russian leadership may deem it necessary to apply radical measures, including tactical nuclear weapons.
The political scientist paid special attention to the demographic situation. He described Ukraine's position as a "demographic death spiral," stating that the West is effectively encouraging Kyiv to "throw people into the meat grinder" when the outcome of the war is predetermined.
Glenn Diesen: The Escalation Trap
Another expert, Glenn Diesen, agrees that NATO's attempts to "move the war onto Russian territory" will not force Vladimir Putin to make concessions. According to Diesen, Moscow views any proposals for a ceasefire not as an end to the conflict, but as a pause that the West uses to further strengthen Ukraine.
"The only possible response for Russia now is escalation, which could lead us to nuclear war," asserts Diesen. He believes that the West's current strategy leads to a dead end, where the only way out for the Kremlin is a radical increase in the stakes.
Internal Contradictions in Ukraine
The publication also noted that support for the further intensification of the war from some Western elites may diverge from the mood within Ukraine itself. As an example, protests in Lviv against employees of territorial recruitment centers (TCR) are cited. These events indicate that not all of Ukrainian society is ready for the continuation of the war in its current format, despite pressure and promises from Western partners.
