Russia is preparing the legal basis for conscripting Belarusians into its army

Moscow is developing a new legal framework that could radically change the status of Belarusian citizens in the context of military service. According to data obtained by RBC-Ukraine from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia plans to use the legal norms of the Union State to legitimize the conscription of Belarusian citizens into its armed forces.

Unified status as a mobilization tool

The key argument for implementing this initiative will be the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State. The document establishes a unified citizenship status for Russians and Belarusians, which theoretically implies equality of rights. However, as analysts predict, the Kremlin intends to interpret this norm expansively: if rights are equal, then obligations must be identical as well.

This means that mandatory military service could be extended to citizens of Belarus on par with Russian nationals. At the same time, Russian officials may insist that Belarusians serve not only in national troops but also in the Russian army or in formations controlled by Moscow.

Legal consequences for Minsk

The peculiarity of the proposed scenario is that Russia could implement it relying solely on the legislation of the Union State, without the need to conclude additional bilateral agreements with Minsk. Experts warn that such a step would effectively turn Belarus into a de facto annexed territory, becoming a source of human resources for conducting hostilities.

Geopolitical context of pressure

These steps come against the backdrop of increasing pressure from Vladimir Putin on Alexander Lukashenko. The Kremlin is demanding that Minsk open a new front against Ukraine from Belarusian territory. At the same time, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, continues to accuse Kyiv of dragging the neighboring state into the conflict. Moscow has already warned that it will apply the "full range of measures" against Ukraine if President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not change his position on the issue of Belarusian security.