Analysts and military experts are warning of an impending escalation of the conflict. Forecasts suggest that during the upcoming winter period, the Russian army will significantly expand the geography and list of targets for massive missile strikes on Ukraine. While the energy sector was previously the main target, railways and water infrastructure are now coming under fire.
Information regarding a change in the Kremlin's tactics appeared in a New York Post article, cited by RBC-Ukraine. Experts link the upcoming campaign to the failures of the Russian army during the spring offensive, when Moscow lost more territory than it captured for the first time in three years.
Goal — Humanitarian Crisis
Maria Snegova, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), asserts that Moscow's strategy boils down to waiting for the cold to resume attacks. According to her, the Kremlin's goal is to create a humanitarian crisis and exert maximum pressure on Ukrainian society to secure concessions regarding the Donbas.
"Putin will wait for winter again to resume large-scale strikes," Snegova noted. The expert predicts that the intensity of attacks will exceed last winter's figures, when Russia launched a record number of drones and missiles daily against critical infrastructure.
Kateryna Stepanenko, a specialist at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), confirms that the list of targets will be expanded. In addition to the energy sector, strikes will be directed at transport arteries and water bodies, which will exacerbate the situation with heating and water supply in the regions.
Economic Dead End and Depletion of Reserves
The decision to launch a harsh winter campaign against the backdrop of a failed offensive is dictated not only by military but also by economic factors. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the federal budget deficit for the first five months of 2026 has risen to $81.4 billion — twice as much as in the same period last year.
The situation is exacerbated by falling hydrocarbon export revenues: oil and gas receipts have dropped by nearly 30%, while state spending has increased by 17%. Russia's gold reserves shrank by 5.7 tons in April — the most significant drop in a quarter of a century.
"Russia's gold reserves are being depleted, there is a shortage of labor in the civilian market, and the economy has taken a significant hit," summarizes Kateryna Stepanenko.
Recruitment Problems and Pressure on Students
A critical factor remains the shortage of personnel. The rate of contract recruitment in Russia fell in May to approximately 30,000 people per month, which is less than the army's losses during the same period. Consequently, the Kremlin has begun to target university students specifically.
According to the Australian ABC, university rectors are offering to waive tuition fees and remove poor grades for those who sign contracts. In April, a quota of 2% was established for universities regarding the recruitment of male students. In one of the leaked recordings, the director of a transport college in Siberia called 18-year-old students "cowards" for refusing to go to war, asking: "Who will protect us?".
To attract volunteers, Russia is already offering payments of around $140,000 for signing a contract, which only exacerbates the country's economic problems.
Ukraine Prepares for Strikes
Ukrainian authorities are preparing for winter in advance. The National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) has approved regional resilience plans for the autumn-winter period of 2026/2027. Concrete sarcophagi have already been installed at most substations — some of them have withstood more than 20 hits from "Shahed" drones.
Experts also warn that the Kremlin may take advantage of the Telegram blockade and internet restrictions in Russia to introduce unpopular decisions under the cover of outages without mass protests. Possible steps include reducing compensation for recruits and veterans, as well as the nationalization of elite assets to raise funds for the war.