The Russian Federation is developing plans to carry out massive strikes against key Ukrainian cities and critical nuclear energy facilities. The objective of this strategy is to completely disconnect nuclear sites from the country's power grid, creating a critical humanitarian and infrastructural situation that would force the Ukrainian leadership to make territorial or political concessions by early 2027.
Scope and Objectives of Strategic Pressure
According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments and statements from European officials shared with the Financial Times, Ukraine's largest megalopolises fall into the zone of maximum risk. In addition to Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa, Moscow's coercive pressure plans also include Lviv. Military experts emphasize that attacks on distribution and energy infrastructure are designed to completely destroy stability in the rear regions.
The Migration Crisis as Part of Hybrid Strategy
Beyond the direct physical destruction of infrastructure, Moscow expects to provoke a new large-scale flow of refugees into European Union countries. According to the strategy's authors, escalating migration pressure is intended to exacerbate the internal problems of European states amid already growing anti-migrant sentiments. In particular, tensions are already being recorded on the border with Poland, where an increase in incidents and attacks on Ukrainian citizens has been observed this year.
Contradictory Data
While Western and Ukrainian officials report that the Russian side is preparing strikes on Ukrainian nuclear facilities aimed at an energy blockade, Russian diplomacy voices mirror accusations. Specifically, Russia's Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, previously claimed that it is allegedly the Armed Forces of Ukraine, encouraged by the European Union, that carry out attacks on Russian nuclear facilities, attempting to shift the blame onto Moscow.
Consequences for the Capital and Future Outlook
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated earlier that the top leadership of the Russian Federation has set the task of intensifying terror against Kyiv to force residents to abandon the capital. Confirmation of this tactic came with recent nighttime occupant attacks on the Southern Bridge in Kyiv, which resulted in severe damage to a support pier, the road surface, and the metro protective barrier.
