The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZF) has published data on the state of the Russian economy, according to which overdue wage arrears owed by enterprises to employees exceeded 2.4 billion rubles as of September 1, 2026. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the intelligence agency. According to the SZF estimates, in August 2026 alone, the amount of unpaid wages increased by 385.3 million rubles, which is almost 19% compared to the previous figure.

Scale and Dynamics of Debt

The intelligence agency notes that in annual terms, overdue wage arrears increased by 47.4% compared to the same period last year. A significant portion of the debt was formed in the current year: according to the SZF, 1.31 billion rubles, or 54% of the total debt, accumulated during 2026 alone. This indicates that the problem is growing rather than being a leftover from previous periods.

Causes: Lack of Own Funds

Ukrainian intelligence names the lack of sufficient internal funds among companies and organizations for timely settlement with workers as the main reason for payment delays. Following this logic, enterprises physically lack the liquidity needed to service current obligations to personnel, shifting the problem from the category of managerial delays to a structural financing deficit.

Corporate Debt Market: Growth in Defaults

According to the SZF, the problems of Russian business are not limited to wage delays. Simultaneously, the situation in the corporate debt market is deteriorating, with an annual increase in defaults by bond issuers. In 2024, Russia recorded 11 defaults, in 2025 their number doubled to 24, and in the incomplete year of 2026, it reached 33. This dynamic indicates systematic difficulties for companies in accessing financing and a growing number of issuers unable to service their issued securities.

Monetary Policy and War Economy

The SZF links this trend with the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia, which the agency characterizes as oriented toward the needs of the war economy. According to this assessment, high borrowing costs complicate business financing, while waging war against Ukraine absorbs large budget resources. As a result, intelligence claims, Russian enterprises are increasingly unable to fulfill financial obligations, affecting both workers whose earned money is delayed and companies losing the ability to service debts.

Context: Budgetary Priorities

Earlier, reports indicated that intelligence noted Russia began cutting salaries for public sector employees to pay new combat participants, and that Russia possesses military and economic resources to continue the war through the next year. The publication of data on wage arrears and rising defaults fits into this context and emphasizes, according to the SZF, the increasing pressure of military spending on the civilian sector of the economy.