For the past five months, the Russian Federation has not launched Kalibr cruise missiles directly from the Black Sea. This was reported by the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, Dmytro Pletenchuk, during the national telethon. According to available data, the activity of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in open waters has been minimized, forcing the Russian side to alter its tactics for deploying missile weaponry.
New Tactics for Missile Deployment
Currently, the port of Novorossiysk has become the primary base for the Black Sea Fleet. According to the Ukrainian Navy representative, Kalibr missile launches are carried out directly from the harbor. Dmytro Pletenchuk emphasized that this approach is associated with high risks for the Russian fleet itself: the detonation of a missile inside the port could lead to catastrophic consequences for port infrastructure and the vessels themselves. Nevertheless, the use of sea-based cruise missiles continues despite the change in launch geography.
Restrictions on Submarine Carriers
In addition to surface vessels, significant restrictions have affected Russia's submarine fleet in the region. As Dmytro Pletenchuk noted, Kalibr missile submarine carriers are currently not launching from harbors and practically do not enter the Black Sea. This significantly reduces Russia's capabilities for stealthy maneuvering and conducting strikes, as submarine operations have become predictable and limited due to the current operational environment.
Aviation Activity and Flight Safety
Despite the lack of naval activity at sea, Russian aviation maintains a presence over the Black Sea basin. However, flight crews adhere to cautious tactics: aircraft and helicopters attempt to maintain a distance of at least 100 kilometers from the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. This distancing indicates a change in threat perception by the Russian command following a series of successful operations by Ukrainian forces in the region.
The Significance of the Shift in Maritime Strategy
The change in the Russian fleet's tactics is a consequence of sustained pressure and a series of successful strikes on Black Sea Fleet facilities, including incidents at the Novorossiysk naval base. Attacks that damaged frigates, including the Admiral Essen, have rendered the open sea unsafe for Russian ships. The current situation indicates a significant limitation of the Russian maritime component's operational capabilities, which has a long-term impact on the nature of hostilities in the region.
