As part of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), a presentation of long-term forecast scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation took place. The speakers presented three future variants calculated for the periods up to 2036 and 2050: inertial, bad, and good. Each of them describes radically different trajectories of the development of international relations and the fate of Russia.
The most pessimistic option, designated as the "Bad Scenario," assumes critical consequences for the Russian state. According to the presentation slides, by 2036, within the framework of this scenario, a defeat in the special military operation and the confrontation with the West is forecast. Also, Ukraine's accession to NATO and a sharp increase in threats to state security and territorial integrity are expected.
The prospects for 2050 in this option look even gloomier: experts speak of the country turning into a "colonial Russia," a reshuffle of spheres of global influence, and the establishment of a unipolar post-globalist world. The result is the complete destruction of sovereignty.
The opposite pole — the "Good Scenario" — paints a picture of total victory. The speaker declared the achievement of success both in the ideological war and on the battlefield by 2036. The description of this future features the annexation of Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and other cities, as well as the disintegration of the European Union.
By 2050, according to the optimistic forecast, Russia should take leading positions in ensuring global security and justice, which implies a radical change in the global balance of power.
The third option — the "Inertial Scenario" — describes a situation in which there are no prerequisites for a quick victory. By 2036, a change in the role of the Russian Federation and a narrowing of the nuclear non-proliferation regime are forecast. The long-term forecast for 2050 for this scenario includes the establishment of American-Chinese hegemony, numerous protracted armed conflicts, and catastrophic technological control from the Western macro-region.
At the moment, official comments from representatives of the relevant departments of Ukraine, member states of the European Union, and the North Atlantic Alliance regarding the models presented at the forum have not been received.