The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has released alarming data indicating that the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons is higher today than it was before active hostilities began a year ago. A secret report, details of which were revealed by Bloomberg, points to a critical shift in the regional and global security situation.
Critical Uranium Stockpile
The primary cause for growing concern among experts is the volume of uranium enriched to 60% accumulated by Iran. This level is only a few percentage points away from weapons-grade. Estimates suggest that total stockpiles of such material have reached nearly 440 kg. For reference: this amount of material is sufficient to produce ten atomic bombs.
Particular concern is raised by the localization of these stockpiles. The majority of the highly enriched uranium is allegedly located in tunnels beneath the city of Isfahan. According to intelligence data, these underground facilities survived American bombings, allowing the Islamic Republic to continue work on the program in a covert mode.
The End of the Inspection Era
The situation is exacerbated by a complete lack of international control. Unlike the pre-war period, when IAEA inspectors conducted weekly checks of nuclear facilities, access for international experts is now closed. Since June 2025, on-site monitoring has been impossible, creating a "blind spot" for the global community.
The Collapse of the Guarantee System
The report warns of broader consequences extending beyond the Iranian program. A trend towards a new nuclear arms race is emerging globally. US allies around the world are increasingly discussing the possibility of creating their own nuclear arsenals. Experts are noting a rise in skepticism regarding the ability of the American "nuclear umbrella" to guarantee the protection of partners under current geopolitical conditions.