The Crimean Bridge, connecting the mainland of Russia with the peninsula, faces a serious threat of destruction caused not by external factors, but by natural disasters. According to experts, regular seismic shocks in the region are having a critical impact on the structure, which was originally built in violation of construction standards.
"Cumulative effect" of seismic shocks
Dmytro Hryn, a seismologist at the S.I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, told RBC-Ukraine that earthquakes occurring near the peninsula have long-term and irreversible consequences for the bridge. The scientist emphasizes that the impact of shocks is not always immediate, but it is fatal in nature.
"Irreversible processes are taking place there for this bridge. Ukrainian earthquakes will finish it off even without the external influence of our missiles," the expert summarizes.
The specialist explains the mechanism of destruction as a "cumulative effect." Constant seismic stress gradually weakens not only the load-bearing structures themselves but also the soils on which the supports stand. According to Hryn, this process is irreversible.
Violation of standards and political decision
The key problem, according to the seismologist, is the construction location itself. The territory between the Kerch and Taman peninsulas is characterized by extremely unstable soils and the presence of its own fault system. Initially, building the bridge in this zone contradicted safety standards.
Hryn claims that state construction standards were changed to implement the project: "The Russians specifically changed the state construction standards and reduced the seismicity of that territory to justify construction in a seismically dangerous zone." According to him, this was an exclusively political decision that ignored geological risks.
Threat of a major earthquake
Activity of faults in the region is confirmed by regular events. Thus, on June 22, six seismic shocks were recorded in Crimea, the strongest of which reached 4.5 on the Richter scale. Repeated shocks were also recorded on June 24.
Dmytro Hryn warns of the possibility of a more massive catastrophe. Near Crimea, there is a system of faults that activates from time to time. The expert believes there is a serious threat of a powerful earthquake occurring in 2027, which could rival an event a century ago.
For comparison, the earthquake 100 years ago reached a magnitude of 9 points and destroyed 70% of buildings in Yalta. Given the current state of the bridge and the geological situation, the consequences of a new disaster could be fatal for the infrastructure.