Ukraine's economic trajectory over the next three years will undergo significant changes, yet the key factor for success remains the political situation. According to the updated report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) titled "Regional Economic Outlook," published by RBC-Ukraine, GDP growth rates will decline in 2026, but a sharp surge is possible in 2027 provided one critical condition is met.
Slowing growth rates in 2025 and 2026
The current economic reality is already showing signs of cooling. According to EBRD estimates, Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2025 has slowed to 1.8%. The main brakes on development have been an acute labor shortage and systemic disruptions in logistics and energy supply caused by ongoing Russian strikes on infrastructure.
The forecast for the following year looks even more restrained. The EBRD expects economic growth at the level of 2.2% in 2026. Bank experts link this decline to the persistence of problems in the industrial sector and logistics chains. An additional pressure factor will be higher prices for imported energy carriers and the acceleration of inflationary processes.
Acceleration scenario: condition for growth in 2027
Despite the slowdown in the medium term, the long-term forecast contains an optimistic scenario. For 2027, the EBRD forecasts GDP growth of 4.0% — almost twice the 2026 figures. However, experts emphasize that such dynamics are possible only under one condition: if the war can be stopped and full-scale post-war recovery begins.
It is important to note that forecasts from other analytical centers also depend heavily on the scenario of the conflict's development. Earlier, in February 2025, the EBRD had already adjusted its expectations, lowering the forecast for the current year to 3.5% and counting on acceleration to 5.0% in 2026, provided a ceasefire is achieved by the end of the year. Estimates from other market players, including the IMF, KSE, Dragon Capital, the Ministry of Economy, and the NBU, range from 2.4% under conditions of continued hostilities to 5% in the event of peace.
Inflation and energy risks
Macroeconomic stability remains fragile. In January 2026, inflation in Ukraine fell to 7.4%, however, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again put this figure at risk. Rising energy prices in global markets create risks for the country's energy security and threaten to widen the gap in external financing.
Budget deficit and dependence on external aid
The state's financial stability relies heavily on international support. The deficit of the Ukrainian state budget, excluding grants, reached critical levels — 23.6% of GDP in 2025. In 2026, this indicator will remain high, forecasting a level of 19.3% of GDP. This gap is covered primarily by external official support, which remains the foundation of short-term development prospects.