The Russian budget is expecting a significant influx of funds in July. According to calculations by Reuters, revenues from oil and gas sales could rise by 60% compared to the same month last year. This sharp surge is driven by rising global energy prices, which, in turn, were triggered by geopolitical events in the Middle East.
Growth factors and the role of the profit tax
The main driver of July's growth was the rise in oil prices. The cost of a barrel exceeded the $100 mark for the first time in two months. The reason for panic in the markets was the statement by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis about a missile attack on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. This intensified investor fears regarding possible disruptions to oil supplies to the global market.
In addition to market conditions, a significant contribution to the treasury was made by the increase in profit tax receipts from oil production, recorded in the second quarter. Oil and gas revenues remain a critically important source of budget funding, accounting for about one-fifth of all state revenues. These funds continue to play a key role in financing military expenditures.
Annual statistics and budget forecast
Despite the impressive July growth, the overall picture for the first seven months of the year remains complex. Total oil and gas receipts from January to July are likely to decrease by approximately 11% compared to the same period in 2025. Estimates suggest this amount will be around 4.9 trillion rubles.
For comparison, at the end of last year, oil and gas receipts fell by 24%, reaching 8.48 trillion rubles — the lowest figure since 2020. Russia, maintaining its status as one of the world's largest exporters alongside the US and Saudi Arabia, has not yet been able to compensate for the annual decline.
Plans for 2026
The Russian federal budget for 2026 includes expectations of receiving 8.92 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues. The total volume of the revenue part of the budget is forecast at 40.283 trillion rubles. The official forecast from the Ministry of Finance of Russia for the end of July is expected to be presented on August 5.
