Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, in an interview with Il Messaggero, stated that Russia does not possess the necessary resources to launch a military attack on Poland. According to him, Vladimir Putin is ultimately losing the war against Ukraine, which significantly limits the Kremlin's capabilities.
Limited military capabilities of the Russian Federation
Warsaw maintains a serious attitude towards any threats from Moscow, considering the historical context of invasions. However, according to the Polish diplomat, the protracted conflict in Ukraine has led to a situation where Russia is no longer capable of large-scale military operations. Sikorski emphasized that the maximum scenario for the Russian Federation at the moment is an attempt at provocation rather than full-scale aggression.
"We have been thinking about our security in relation to Russia for about five hundred years, and we will not stop. But Putin does not have the means to attack us today: the most he can try is some provocation. He has still not managed to conquer the Donbas after almost thirteen years of attempts," noted the head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Provocations and testing NATO
Sikorski paid special attention to reports that the United States has warned Warsaw about a possible limited armed provocation by the Russian Federation in the coming months. According to intelligence data, the goal of such actions could be to test NATO's resolve.
The Polish minister neither confirmed nor denied this information but called it quite probable. At the same time, he expressed the opinion that publicly exposing the Kremlin's intentions in advance could become a deterrent and force Russia to abandon aggressive steps.
Results of the war and Ukraine's effectiveness
Radosław Sikorski noted that Ukraine's results in the confrontation with Russian aggression have exceeded all expectations. Kyiv avoided full occupation, continues to export grain via the Black Sea, and maintains a stable front. At the same time, the Russian army has shown results significantly worse than those expected of it by the world.
The minister noted particular effectiveness in the actions of Ukrainian forces against Russian oil refineries. According to him, these objects are legitimate military targets as they supply fuel to the occupiers' army. The result of the attacks has been kilometer-long queues at gas stations in Russia.
Hybrid war and information attacks
Despite failures in kinetic warfare, Russia has been actively waging a hybrid war against the West for ten years. Moscow spends over a billion euros a year on propaganda, cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage, using Western social networks to exacerbate division and hatred in society.
Russian special services and millions of internet trolls are betting on information campaigns. The enemy intentionally stirs up emotions around historical disputes to cause a rift between Ukraine and Poland. According to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, top Kremlin officials, including Dmitry Medvedev and Maria Zakharova, are openly involved in these information attacks.