Radosław Sikorski, the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, made an alarming statement in an interview with the American TV channel CBS News regarding a possible escalation of the conflict on NATO's eastern flank. According to him, Warsaw does not rule out a scenario in which Russia stages a provocation against one of the Alliance countries to obtain a pretext for a military strike.
The 'False Flag' Scenario
During the conversation, Sikorski discussed the likelihood that Moscow will attempt to test the effectiveness of Article 5 of the NATO Charter in the next two years. The minister noted that as long as Ukraine successfully resists, Russia does not have sufficient forces for a full-scale attack on the Alliance. However, citing recent statements by Vladimir Putin about readiness to respond to any attack, the Polish diplomat put forward a hypothesis about an intentional provocation.
"Of course, we have no such plans. Therefore, I do not rule out that the Russians may conduct some kind of operation under a false flag on Russian territory to get a pretext for an attack on one of the NATO countries," Sikorski stated.
He emphasized that the West must make it clear to the Kremlin: Warsaw and its partners know about Moscow's possible plans, will not allow themselves to be deceived, and will defend every inch of Alliance territory.
Vulnerabilities and the 'Eastern Shield'
When asked where exactly the staging might take place, Sikorski pointed to the Suwałki Corridor — a narrow strip of land connecting Lithuania with the rest of Poland, which many experts consider a vulnerable point. Separately, the minister mentioned threats against the Baltic countries — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Poland is already taking active steps to strengthen its defense. The country spends 4.8% of its GDP on military needs, which in relative terms exceeds US spending. The Polish army has F-16 and F-35 fighter jets, Abrams tanks, and HIMARS MLRS. There is also large-scale work on the 'Eastern Shield' project — a system of fortifications on the border with Belarus.
'We will do what we have always done'
Sikorski urged not to underestimate the intentions of the Russian leader. "We knew that he was gathering troops near the borders of Ukraine, six months before the start of the invasion, right? People just thought that he could not be so criminal and so mad to actually do it. Now we know that Putin's intentions are as dangerous as some warned," the minister summarized.
He assured that if Moscow begins to increase its military presence near NATO borders, Poland will respond in kind. "If Putin wants war, if Ukraine is not enough for him, we will do what we have always done," the Foreign Minister added.
These statements come against the backdrop of a publication in the British newspaper The Guardian, which reported that Russia may be preparing military and hybrid provocations on NATO's eastern flank, seeking to test Western unity amid growing pressure due to Ukraine's long-range strikes.