The Ukrainian foreign exchange market is entering a new week without signs of impending turbulence. Despite ongoing military and energy threats, the financial situation remains under control. Experts forecast that hryvnia-denominated instruments will retain their investment appeal for citizens, and sharp exchange rate spikes are not expected.
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at GLOBUS BANK, confirmed in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that there is no direct link between the presence of risks and an automatic exchange rate spike. Even if the cash market begins to show signs of nervousness, this will not signal the start of a prolonged devaluation.
The role of the regulator and "managed flexibility"
The key factor in stability remains the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). Exchange rates in currency exchange offices ultimately synchronize with the non-cash segment, where the regulator plays the main role. The NBU continues to operate in a mode of "managed flexibility," effectively limiting excessive fluctuations and curbing speculative demand for foreign currency.
According to forecasts for the coming week, average exchange rate fluctuations will not exceed 1–1.5% from the starting mark. The gap between the interbank and cash market rates will remain within 0.1–0.15 UAH.
Inflation and real returns
Financial experts point out an important nuance: although the projected inflation for 2026 is 9.4%, this does not make holding cash foreign currency the best way to preserve capital. Currency certainly protects against exchange rate risks, but it does not generate income on its own.
To achieve real financial results, experts recommend focusing on deposits and Ukrainian government bonds (OVGZ). The basis for the high returns of these instruments is the NBU discount rate, which currently stands at 15%. According to regulator forecasts, the rate will be maintained at this level at least until the second quarter of 2027, ruling out grounds for a rapid drop in deposit rates in the near future.
Best conditions for investors
Deposits with a term of 6 months to 1 year remain the most profitable at the current stage. At the same time, for those planning cash operations, it is worth considering the current spread difference: on the interbank market, it is up to 0.15 UAH per dollar, while in exchange offices, the difference between buying and selling can reach 1 UAH per dollar and 1.3 UAH per euro.