Against the backdrop of fierce confrontation in Ukraine and growing pressure from the West, Moscow is considering new vectors of pressure. Intelligence data indicates that Russia may be preparing military and hybrid provocations on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. The main goal of these maneuvers is to test the unity of Western allies and check their readiness for defense.
Testing Article 5: Focus on the Baltics
According to sources, Moscow plans measures that are unlikely to escalate into a full-scale invasion but will pose a serious challenge to partner countries. Latvian intelligence has already recorded signs of preparation for such actions directed against the Baltic states or Poland. A high-ranking political source in another NATO country confirmed fears: Vladimir Putin may attempt to test the US readiness to defend the smallest members of the bloc — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Experts link these plans to the current difficulties of the Russian army during the invasion of Ukraine. Lacking resources to open a full second front, the Kremlin is leaning towards hybrid scenarios. Latvian intelligence services suggest that missiles or drones could be used for provocations. Such a step is intended to force the West to stop supporting Kyiv.
Horizontal escalation of the conflict
Kier Giles, a Russia expert from the Chatham House think tank, believes that Moscow will look for ways to change the dynamics of the war by horizontally escalating the conflict to other states. Western military officials link the Kremlin's nervousness to successful Ukrainian drone attacks on targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg, which demonstrate the vulnerability of Russian rear areas.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk officially confirmed these fears after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdańsk. He stated that the situation is extremely unstable and various forms of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months. According to him, countries directly exposed to this risk must prepare as a single group.
The "Gleiwitz" scenario and fear of the NATO summit
Recently, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that the RF is preparing a provocation "under a false flag" to justify new aggression. According to him, the Kremlin is creating an information basis for an operation by its own special services to get a pretext for new strikes. The head of the Polish diplomatic department compared Moscow's actions to the Nazi staging in Gleiwitz in 1939 before the attack on Poland.
Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also pointed to the Kremlin's destructive behavior. He revealed Putin's main fear regarding the NATO summit in Ankara: the Russian leader is most afraid of Alliance members fulfilling specific commitments regarding defense spending and significantly increasing support for Ukraine.