In an interview with the Financial Times, Finnish President Alexander Stubb voiced a bold assessment of the current situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. In his view, Ukraine is currently in the best position it has been throughout the war. This has become possible thanks to intensified strikes deep into Russian territory, which has radically changed the balance of power.
Dominance on the Battlefield
Stubb noted that allies, including the US, see the real picture: Kyiv is dominating the battlefield. The Finnish leader emphasized that Ukraine has reached the peak of its capabilities — not only military, but also political and financial. It is precisely this shift that has caused what Stubb called "restless activity" in Russia.
According to the Finnish expert, the offensive actions of the Russian army have slowed down and have transitioned into a phase of bloody positional warfare with huge losses. In June, according to data from the Black Bird Group, Russia lost about 9 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine. These are the first net territorial losses for Russia since 2023.
Changing Public Opinion in Russia
Stubb's key conclusion is that Russia will not end the war solely due to frontline losses. In his words, it is about a fundamental change in public opinion within the country, which is already happening. The President of Finland is confident that all NATO leaders understand the importance of Kyiv's current strategy and the need to continue increasing pressure.
Strategic Shift and the Nuclear Question
According to Stubb, Ukraine's campaign of deep strikes has changed the strategic thinking of the US and strengthened Kyiv's negotiating position. Previously, China and some NATO allies were concerned about long-range strikes due to the risk of escalation. However, during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the president received a firm answer regarding the inadmissibility of nuclear escalation.
The Path to NATO
The question of Ukraine's accession to NATO was postponed until a possible ceasefire, but Stubb proposed an alternative: integrating Ukraine's defense industry with the alliance is the fastest way to bring the country closer to membership. "If I had the choice, we would make Ukraine a NATO member immediately," he stated, adding that the alliance needs Ukraine just as much as Ukraine needs the alliance.
Recall that at the end of June, the President of Finland signed amendments to the nuclear energy law, allowing the transit of nuclear weapons through the country's territory. At the same time, Stubb emphasized that Finland must be a full-fledged member of NATO without restrictions, but does not plan to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory.
