Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has forecast a drop in retail prices for sunflower oil over the next three months. As Minister Taras Vysotskyi stated at a press briefing, the price correction for consumers will occur with a lag of about 90 days and will be directed toward lower prices, provided that the situation with limited exports and the blockade of seaports remains unchanged. In his words, the mechanism has already been set in motion: in September, prices for sunflower seeds on the domestic market began to fall, driven by a surplus that formed because the product could not be shipped by sea.
Seed surplus as a trigger for lower prices
The logic of the price decline is built on the chain "seeds — processing — retail." The blockade of the Greater Odesa ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, and the port of Pivdennyi) for exports since late July created a surplus of sunflower seeds on the domestic market that cannot be shipped by the traditional sea route. Alternative channels — the Danube ports, railway crossings on the western border, and road transport — are physically unable to handle the volumes that were previously transported through the Black Sea terminals. As a result, the supply of seeds on the domestic market has exceeded demand, and their price already began to fall in September. The minister emphasized that it is precisely this process that, with a three-month delay, will be reflected in the price of finished oil in stores.
Oilseed harvest and market outlook
In the current season, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, a sunflower harvest of more than 12 million tonnes is expected, as well as about 4 million tonnes of soybeans and 4 million tonnes of rapeseed. The total oilseed harvest may reach approximately 20 million tonnes. Such a volume, with export restrictions in place, forms a stable domestic supply of raw material, which in the medium term puts downward pressure on processing costs and, accordingly, on the retail price of oil. The official linked the forecast specifically to this factor: the longer the seed surplus persists, the higher the probability of a price correction for the end consumer.
Contradictory data
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy's forecast is conditional and contains an internal caveat that is important to keep in mind. On the one hand, cheaper seeds and a raw material surplus objectively create downward pressure on prices. On the other hand — the same source notes that the retail price will fall only "in the event of an unchanged situation with limited exports and the port blockade," meaning this is not a guarantee but a scenario. Moreover, on September 10, Russia struck the "Oleina" plant of the international company Bunge in Dnipro, as a result of which the enterprise's operations were suspended. This creates an additional contradiction: a reduction in processing capacity may limit the supply of finished oil on the domestic market and partially offset the effect of cheaper raw material. Thus, the actual dynamics of retail prices will depend on the balance of two factors — the seed surplus and the losses in processing.
Currency losses and the macroeconomic context
The blockade of maritime shipping has a broader economic effect as well. According to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, in the second half of the year the country may lose out on about $2.5 billion in foreign currency revenue due to problems with maritime shipping. This concerns not only agricultural products but also goods from the mining and metallurgical complex, whose exports have also sharply declined. In this context, a possible drop in the price of sunflower oil becomes one of the few positive consequences of the export crisis for consumers, although the situation remains tense for the budget and export industries.
