Alexander Syrsky, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has warned that Russia may resort to a new wave of mobilization in case of extreme necessity. At the same time, the Ukrainian military leadership is prepared for any scenarios of enemy actions and is already taking measures to prevent potential threats.
Risk Assessment and Timeframes
In an interview with the TSN channel during the tele-marathon, Syrsky emphasized that all possible options for enemy actions are under close scrutiny. He urged not to view information about a probable mobilization in Russia as inevitable, but acknowledged that such a risk exists constantly.
In the opinion of the Commander-in-Chief, the Kremlin is unlikely to take this step in the near future. He identified the period after the completion of the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, scheduled for September 18–20, 2026, as the most likely time for a new mobilization.
Balance of Losses and Reinforcements
Previously, Syrsky reported that Russia's losses during the full-scale war exceed the pace of its mobilization. According to his data, since January 1 of the current year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have killed or severely wounded 183,500 Russian servicemen. During the same period, Russia mobilized 180,500 people.
These figures indicate that current methods of replenishing the ranks are not keeping up with actual losses on the front lines.
Reduction in the Flow of Volunteers
The independent Russian publication "Important Stories" reported a noticeable decline in the number of volunteers in the army, even in regions that traditionally lead in the number of contract soldiers. This creates a shortage of personnel, which, according to journalists, is already being discussed in Moscow.
One of the possible solutions being considered is conducting a mobilization after the autumn State Duma elections — a scenario that fully matches Alexander Syrsky's forecast.