The situation on the border of the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions has undergone significant changes. According to official sources, the Russian side has changed its tactics in this region, leading to a decrease in the activity of special reconnaissance groups (SRG).
Prioritizing the creation of a buffer zone
Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, commented on the current situation during a TV marathon. According to him, the activity of enemy sabotage groups has noticeably decreased over a long period. The expert pointed out that the adversary has revised its tasks.
"The enemy understands that his task is different — he plans to create a buffer zone, and for this, the use of infantry groups is more suitable," Demchenko noted.
Despite the decrease in intensity, the threat of using sabotage methods has not completely disappeared. However, the SBU spokesperson emphasized that the scale of activity observed earlier is not currently being recorded.
Escalation scenarios and the role of Belarus
The context of changes on the border is inextricably linked to the adversary's broader plans. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously outlined five scenarios under which Russia could expand the war in the north of the country. One of the key elements of these scenarios is the possible involvement of Belarus in the conflict.
Against the backdrop of these statements, Minsk is conducting joint nuclear exercises with Moscow and regularly leveling accusations against Ukraine. In particular, the Belarusian regime has claimed alleged drone attacks from Ukrainian territory.
According to assessments by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there are currently no signs of a ground invasion from Belarus. Nevertheless, experts do not rule out that Russia could use the territory of the neighboring state to organize strikes against western regions of Ukraine.
Kyiv's response
Rhetoric between Kyiv and Minsk remains tense. Robert "Madjar" Brovdy, Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, responded sharply to the latest accusations by Alexander Lukashenko. He urged the Belarusian leader not to "poke his eyes" at Ukraine and warned of the existence of a target list.
According to Brovdy, Ukrainian military personnel already have the first 500 targets "on pencil" on the territory of Belarus. In response, Lukashenko made threats, stating his readiness to launch a retaliatory strike against a "very serious" target.