The effectiveness of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine is sharply declining, despite the active use of various mapping and battlefield analysis methods. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces liberated significantly more territory in May than Russian troops were able to capture.
Real Figures on Losses and Advancement
Analysts cite specific figures that demonstrate the scale of the Russian army's failures. In May, Russian troops captured or penetrated an area of about 40 sq. km, while losing control over approximately 280 sq. km. For comparison, the situation in April was similar: about 28 sq. km were captured, but 116 sq. km were lost.
It is important to note that part of Russia's "advancements" are merely temporary penetrations deep into Ukrainian positions. Areas where Russian troops, sometimes in small groups of a few soldiers, infiltrated and maintain a limited presence are not controlled by them in a doctrinal sense. This means that tactical successes do not translate into strategic ones.
Rising Losses and the Cost of Capture
The Russian offensive has slowed to its lowest levels in the past year. Occupier losses are hitting record highs: about 35,000 military personnel are killed or severely wounded every month. The recruitment of contract soldiers barely covers this gap, creating serious personnel problems for the Russian army.
The price of every kilometer of advancement has risen sharply. If last autumn Russia spent 67 soldiers per square kilometer of captured territory, in April it was already 179. In May, this figure increased even further, indicating the growing inefficiency of Russian operations.
Refusal to Negotiate and New Goals
Against this backdrop, Kremlin officials continue to reject any settlement through negotiations that does not address the "root causes" of the war in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a video address on the occasion of Russian Language Day that restoring the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people in Ukraine "is a necessary condition for a long-term peaceful settlement".
The Kremlin's continued adherence to Russia's initial military goals occurs against the backdrop of declining combat capabilities of the Russian Federation and a slowdown in Russian advancement. This creates a paradoxical situation: the worse things go on the front, the harsher Moscow's demands become.
Internal Problems and Deadlock
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to issue another batch of nonsense regarding the war in Ukraine. According to him, the occupier's army is allegedly advancing on the front every day. However, the reality is that the situation on the front has reached a deadlock, while economic and social problems within Russia are intensifying.
Recently, Estonian intelligence stated that the Russian dictator has less and less time to impose his conditions on Ukraine in the war. Head of the GUR Kyrylo Budanov reported that Russia cannot achieve its initial goals in the war with Ukraine. He added that therefore the aggressor country is "lowering the bar" and putting forward new demands.
Expert Opinions and Forecasts
The FT recently wrote that the Russian command promised Vladimir Putin to capture the Donbas by autumn. They report to him that the Ukrainian army is allegedly exhausted, the front is collapsing, and Ukraine's strength is diminishing. However, these statements do not correspond to reality.
Bloomberg wrote that some high-ranking officials in the Kremlin admit that the war against Ukraine has reached a deadlock. They also do not see a safe way out of this situation for the regime. This creates a serious threat to the stability of the Russian leadership and could lead to unpredictable consequences.
Thus, the current combat situation, specifically the frequent changes in Ukrainian and Russian positions and the growth of the drone strike zone, makes accurate calculations of achievements and losses difficult. However, all sources using various counting methodologies come to general conclusions regarding the advances of Russia and Ukraine on the battlefield.