Logic would suggest that a full-scale war, regular attacks, and security threats should lead to a collapse in real estate values. However, the Kyiv market shows a different picture. Instead of the expected price drop, apartment costs remain stable, and in some segments, they continue to rise. Experts call this phenomenon the "Kyiv market paradox," driven by state programs and internal migration flows.
State Programs as a Demand Driver
One of the key factors keeping prices afloat is the active financing of state housing programs. Oleksandr Derlyuk, a real estate expert, noted in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that the use of housing certificates sharply activates the secondary market. This is particularly noticeable in the segment of one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments, which are in highest demand among new buyers.
This situation creates a kind of "speculative effect." Property owners, seeing buyer activity supported by the state, begin to inflate price tags, creating an illusion of rising real value for their assets. The expert warns that these prices are often not justified by market logic, but demand allows sellers to keep them at a high level.
The Displaced Persons Factor: Why the Capital Remains Attractive
The second powerful factor supporting the market is the influx of displaced persons. People leaving frontline zones and temporarily occupied territories are mass-migrating to the capital. For them, Kyiv remains the most promising place for living and investment, despite the risks of shelling.
"As long as there is demand from displaced persons, the capital remains promising for purchase," emphasizes Derlyuk. This internal migration flow compensates for potential capital outflow and buyer fear of instability.
Figures and Forecasts: What to Expect from the Market
Experts do not forecast a significant price drop in the near future. On the contrary, if state financing continues, it will support and even increase pricing policies. The drop that some buyers expect is unlikely, especially in the segment of small apartments.
A survey conducted by LUN in the summer of 2026 confirms market optimism: 45% of potential buyers believe that real estate prices in Kyiv will rise. Only 36% expect a decrease in cost, while 19% believe prices will remain at the same level.
How Much Housing Costs in Kyiv Today
According to current estimates, the cost of one-bedroom apartments in buildings constructed after 2000 ranges from $70,000 to $80,000. In more prestigious and new residential complexes, the price for a "one-bedroom" apartment of about 45 sq. m can reach $100,000.
The situation in the new construction market is even more indicative. A square meter in buildings under construction has increased in price over the last five years from approximately $700–900 to $1,200–1,300. This indicates that developers and builders are confident in the market's purchasing power even under wartime conditions.
Overall, the Ukrainian real estate market continues to recover. According to data for the first half of 2026, demand for private houses grew by 24%, apartment rents increased by 15%, and private house rents rose by 29%. The Kyiv real estate market demonstrates remarkable resilience, relying on state support and the population's need for safe housing.
