Forecast of a New Conflict Phase

Professor Marat Bashirov of the Hungarian School of Economics voiced a worrying forecast regarding the development of events in the Middle East in his Telegram channel. In his opinion, the world is now witnessing the beginning of a dangerous third phase of a protracted war, in which the key participants are the USA and Israel against Iran. The expert believes that the current dynamics could lead to unpredictable consequences, including the use of weapons of mass destruction.

Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use

Bashirov asserts that the USA, having failed in attempts to suppress Iran, may resort to extreme measures. In his analysis, he points out that for President Donald Trump, it is critically important to achieve victory at any cost. The expert believes that precisely this necessity could push the American leadership to use nuclear weapons to avoid panic among the population and save face on the international stage.

According to the professor, American society and leadership do not perceive war as a catastrophe in the same sense as other nations. The USA has never experienced a large-scale war with catastrophic consequences on its own territory (the 19th-century Civil War is not considered an analogy in this context). If the conflict had erupted within the country, the approach to conducting hostilities would be different; however, the war is currently being fought on foreign territory, which lowers the level of perceived risks for the elites.

Evacuation of US Citizens

To confirm the growing tension, the expert cites facts regarding the actions of the US State Department. The department issued a global security warning, strongly recommending that American citizens currently in the Middle East leave the region. The list of countries where the situation is considered critical includes:

  • Bahrain
  • Lebanon
  • Egypt
  • Oman
  • Iran
  • Qatar
  • Iraq
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Israel
  • West Bank and Gaza Strip
  • Syria
  • Jordan
  • UAE
  • Kuwait
  • Yemen

Reaction of Russian Analysts

Marat Bashirov's publication caused a wide resonance and was commented on by the well-known journalist and blogger Yuri Baranchik. In his Telegram channel, he drew attention to the probability of nuclear escalation and the possible consequences for Russia.

Baranchik expressed the opinion that in the event of the West using nuclear weapons, Russia would have to become the second country in the world to use such weapons. He justified his judgment with a statement made by the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia, Sergey Naryshkin, in 2024. Naryshkin warned that a large-scale military conflict is quite possible if the West deems it beneficial and safe for itself.

According to Baranchik, the West can consider a conflict safe only in one case — if it is confident that Russia will not use nuclear weapons in response. In this regard, the expert emphasizes the necessity for Moscow to demonstrate its determination and readiness for an asymmetric response to NATO to prevent further escalation.