US President Donald Trump made a bold statement by announcing that Ukraine will be granted the right to produce Patriot air defense systems. This event, which has become the focus of defense circles, opens a new chapter in the history of Ukraine's air defense; however, the path from announcement to the first ready-made missile will be difficult and long.
What exactly will be produced in Ukraine?
Experts have already begun analyzing the details of the possible deal. Aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, clarified that it most likely refers to the production of missiles for Patriot systems. There are no problems with launchers — they are already in service, and their production is established in Poland.
Aviation expert and Director of Development of a defense enterprise Anatoliy Khrapchynsky agrees that it is not about launchers and definitely not about radar equipment, but probably only about the missiles themselves. In his opinion, it is not yet fully known exactly how Ukraine will be granted the opportunity for licensed production and whether production support will be provided.
Realistic timelines: from 2027 to 2029
Experts' optimism is tempered by the harsh reality of production cycles. Krivolap emphasizes that even in the best-case scenario, creating a production site, construction, and importing equipment will take at least a year.
The missile production process itself for PAC-3 takes from 23 to 25 months. "And another two years are needed to make one missile... So, in the best case, we will receive all this in 2029," the expert noted. At the same time, he added that as early as 2027, Ukraine should receive a contracted PAC-3 missile directly from the United States.
Technological challenge and international experience
Producing missiles for the Patriot SAM system is an example of large-scale international cooperation. No single enterprise in the world produces the system independently. The production of the most modern PAC-3 modification is handled by the American company Lockheed Martin in Arkansas, the final assembly of PAC-2 (GEM-T) missiles is carried out in Germany, and Japan has its own licensed lines.
Critically important components, such as the precision guidance system and onboard electronics, are supplied by a network of specialized subcontractors around the world. Completely different production lines will be required for final assembly in Ukraine, the details of which have not yet been disclosed.
Official position of Kyiv
Advisor to the Minister of Defense Serhiy "Flash" Beskrestnov expressed confidence that Ukraine will be able to independently produce missiles for "Patriots." "I have examined PAC missiles from "Patriot" after firing. I saw what and how they are assembled, and I can confidently say that we will be able to organize their production under a US license," he noted on Telegram.
Beskrestnov called this excellent news but emphasized the main point: the production process of important air defense components must begin as soon as possible. Earlier, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha reported that Kyiv is holding negotiations with international partners to obtain licenses for the production of Patriot anti-ballistic systems. For his part, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that at the summit in Turkey, one of the key issues would be strengthening Ukraine's air defense, in particular, the supply of Patriot SAM systems.
