On November 3, 2026, the US midterm congressional elections ended in a crushing defeat for the Republican Party. According to RBC-Ukraine journalist Milan Lelich, overnight Donald Trump transformed from a "winning president" into a "lame duck": the gap in the results was so vast that feeble attempts by the White House to contest the outcome were quickly dropped as votes were counted, and the opposition's victory was ultimately acknowledged by the president himself. Sociologists had spoken of a "blue wave" ahead of the vote, but in reality, as the column's author points out, it was a "blue tsunami"—an outcome that neither the Democrats, demoralized by the failure of 2024, nor Trump and his fellow partisans expected at the start of 2026.
"Blue Tsunami": Gerrymandering Failed to Save Them
The key factor in the defeat was the Republicans' loss of a significant portion of their own supporters. In a number of states, the party employed the well-known tactic of artificial gerrymandering, relying on the results of the 2024 elections, but this did not help: quite a few people who voted for Trump the president two years ago voted for the Democrats this time. Specifically, Republicans lost much of their support among African Americans and Latinos, whose votes in 2024 were a crucial part of Trump's confident victory. The midterms essentially turned into a referendum on confidence in the president—and he lost it.
The War in Iran as a Fatal Mistake
According to the column's author, a single decision proved fatal: launching the war in Iran. Following initial visible successes, including the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as noted in the text, it quickly became clear that the regime had held its ground. The war itself, with an undefined goal and high costs, led to a rise in global oil prices, which in turn drove up prices in American stores. Thus, Lelich assesses, Trump broke two main campaign promises—not to start wars around the world and to raise the living standards of Americans. Subsequent boasting about "almost crushing Iran" and playing down the significance of inflation, as social research showed, only irritated voters.
"Handpicked" Candidates and Failures in "Red" States
The situation was further compounded by the fact that in a number of races, the president essentially handpicked and fielded openly weak candidates against the Democrats. In Texas, Ken Paxton lost to Democrat James Talarico, resulting in a deeply "red" state being decisively won by the Democrats. In South Carolina, Darlin, the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham who lacked political experience, lost to Democrat Annie Andrews. In Kansas, where Trump did not interfere in candidate selection, a Democratic senator will represent the state for the first time since 1932. Having embarked on a major tour of the states a couple of months before the vote, the president failed to save the situation against the backdrop of record-low ratings, in the author's view: US media reported that party strategists tried to dissuade him from attending certain rallies or at least hold them far from contested districts, and simply avoided mentioning the president in campaign ads.
What's Next: "Mr. Veto" and Consequences for Ukraine
Immediately after the election, having acknowledged his party's defeat, Trump stated that he "will work with Democrats in Congress." However, Lelich assesses that a more plausible scenario is the one he voiced a couple of days before the vote—turning into "Mr. Veto." For the president himself, as well as for everyone actively doing business with Americans, "entirely different times" are beginning, according to the author. For Ukraine, the shift in the balance of power in Washington means a review of a course that experts previously characterized as "flirting" with Russia: the Democrats' victory in Congress is expected to change US policy, including regarding Kyiv.
