The traditional large-scale parade in honor of "Naval Day," which annually draws attention to St. Petersburg, may not take place. Intelligence from the UK Ministry of Defence has issued a forecast suggesting that Russia will cancel this event for the second time in recent years. The primary factor influencing such a decision is cited as critical security concerns.
History of Cancellations and Reductions
Events of recent years show a consistent trend towards changing the format of the celebration. From 2017 to 2024, Naval Day in Russia was invariably accompanied by a grand naval parade on the Baltic Sea. On these days, the fleet demonstrated its strength in the waters off the coast of St. Petersburg, and Vladimir Putin personally inspected the warships. Last year, the event was completely cancelled, with security risks cited as the main reason at that time.
In 2024, despite the parade taking place, its scale was significantly reduced compared to previous years. Last year, the event was completely cancelled, and security risks were again named as the main reason. Now, British analysts believe that the scenario will repeat in the current year: the main naval parade will not take place again.
Security Factor and Strikes on Kronstadt
The key trigger for a possible cancellation has been the actual combat losses suffered by the Russian fleet. On June 3, Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Baltic Fleet frigate "Boykiy" of the "Steregushchiy" class. The attack occurred in Kronstadt, in close proximity to St. Petersburg, making the threat to holding a mass event in this region real and tangible.
Video footage of the attack consequences, published in the open domain, recorded a burning corvette. This incident vividly demonstrated Ukraine's ability to strike Russian military objects at a distance of more than 1000 km. The ship "Boykiy," which was used for provocations near NATO borders and escorting tankers of the so-called "shadow fleet," was put out of commission, which significantly weakened Russia's naval potential in the Baltic.
Replacement Scenario: Exercises Instead of Parade
In the event that forecasts regarding the cancellation of the ceremonial procession of ships are confirmed, Russian authorities may choose an alternative format for demonstrating strength. According to British intelligence, instead of a public parade in St. Petersburg, closed or limited naval exercises may be conducted. The format is compared to the "July Storm" exercises planned for 2025.
Thus, instead of the usual spectacle involving foreign delegations and civilian vessels, the focus will shift to tactical preparation and secrecy, dictated by the current operational situation and the inability to guarantee the safety of participants and spectators under conditions of real attack threats.
