Ukraine's currency market will maintain controlled stability in early July, although the exchange rate will continue to respond to importer demand, the situation in global markets, and military risks. This was stated by Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Seasonal activity and the role of the regulator
The transition between months traditionally attracts more attention to the currency market. Businesses are finalizing current settlements, importers are forming new orders, and the population is paying closer attention to the exchange rate. However, this does not mean that the market will face sudden changes.
According to Lesovoy, the National Bank remains a key player supporting the balance of supply and demand. The policy of "managed flexibility" allows the market to respond to economic factors without sharp exchange rate jumps. "There are currently no grounds to expect a sharp shift in the exchange rate," the expert noted.
Importer demand and inflationary risks
The highest demand for foreign currency will still be formed by importers, primarily companies purchasing fuel and energy resources. Even a possible decrease in global oil prices does not mean that Ukrainian importers will immediately reduce foreign currency purchases. Some businesses may continue to build up stocks to protect themselves from new price fluctuations.
Lesovoy emphasizes that current demand does not pose a threat to the currency market, as the NBU can compensate for it with currency interventions if necessary. According to the banker's assessment, there is currently no additional inflationary pressure on the currency market. Seasonal price reductions for vegetables, fruits, and berries are curbing the overall rise in prices, and fuel is not yet showing a sharp increase in cost. Therefore, neither the population nor businesses have an incentive to massively buy foreign currency.
The uncertainty factor: war
The main factor of uncertainty remains the war. Any attacks on energy, transport, or other critical infrastructure can quickly change market sentiment. Nevertheless, according to Lesovoy's forecast, the most likely scenario between June 29 and July 5 will remain moderate exchange rate dynamics without sharp fluctuations.
Exchange rate forecast for early July
The expert forecasts the following ranges:
- US Dollar: 44.6–45.25 UAH;
- Euro: 51.5–52.5 UAH.
Lesovoy concluded that the current situation in the currency market can be characterized as a period of "changing calm," where fluctuations are possible but will remain controlled and without a panic nature.
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