The Kremlin's strategy, built on suppressing the enemy with mass manpower and equipment, has ceased to work. Ukraine has established an effective system that destroys Russian resources faster than Moscow can replenish them. Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that Kyiv has effectively broken the aggressor's main tactical advantage.
Drone revolution and strikes on logistics
The key factor shifting the balance of power has been the total dronization of the front. Ukrainian UAVs provide unprecedented reconnaissance, making the covert transfer of equipment and manpower impossible. Russian military bloggers themselves admit that the infiltration tactics they counted on in recent months have been completely neutralized.
Medium-range strikes play a special role. In the spring of 2026, Kyiv launched a series of strikes that led to the de facto blockade of key transport arteries. The M-14 highway, connecting continental Russia with occupied Crimea, and routes in the south leading to Donetsk, are under constant fire control. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov officially called this situation a "logistical blockade".
Even if Moscow decides on a new mobilization, new reservists are highly unlikely to be able to safely reach the front line. Kyiv is actively funding the most effective drone units and opening new tenders, increasing pressure on the enemy's rear.
Finance versus reality: the collapse of recruitment
Economic incentives have stopped working. Despite Putin's decree to write off debts of up to 10 million rubles for contractors, fewer and fewer people want to fight. Recruitment is stalling, and the Russian command is forced to look for new sources of replenishment.
According to ISW, Moscow has begun actively recruiting women and students into the troops, directing them to air defense units and drone operators to protect the rear. This indicates that traditional recruitment methods have been exhausted.
Political risk for the regime
Forced conscription carries colossal risks for the Kremlin. If in mid-2025 Russian society still tolerated the war due to visible successes on the front, the situation has now changed radically. The lack of victories, the blow to the economy, and huge losses make a new mobilization dangerous for regime stability.
A sharp increase in the issuance of "mobilization orders" confirms that voluntary recruitment can no longer cope with the needs of the front. The Office of the President of Ukraine does not rule out that Putin may take this step after the Duma elections, however, Ukrainian intelligence warns: a new wave of mobilization will finally finish off the aggressor's economy.