Between October 26 and November 1, 2026, Ukraine's foreign exchange market will remain stable within managed rate adjustments. According to Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, there are currently insufficient grounds for sharp fluctuations or market equilibrium disruptions, with the National Bank of Ukraine playing a key role in maintaining stability.
Market Resilience Factors and the Role of the National Bank
The main safeguard against sharp currency shocks remains the country's adequate international reserves and the regulator's ability to conduct prompt currency interventions. As of early October, the NBU's international reserves stood at $47.1 billion. Despite some reduction compared to previous periods, this volume is sufficient for approximately four months of future imports, whereas on the eve of the full-scale invasion, the figure was $27.4 billion.
Provided international funding continues to arrive steadily, financial reserves could potentially approach the $70 billion mark by the end of the year. Market equilibrium is maintained because the regulator successfully compensates for supply and demand imbalances in the interbank and cash markets.
Main Threats and Macroeconomic Pressure
Among the key factors exerting pressure on Ukraine's foreign exchange market, experts highlight a serious foreign trade deficit. Over the first nine months of the current year, goods imports exceeded $75.1 billion, while exports amounted to only $29.6 billion, creating a trade gap of about $45.5 billion.
An additional burden is created by the energy factor: high global prices for oil and petroleum products increase the cost of fuel imports. The situation is aggravated by business expenditures on energy supply during massive infrastructure attacks. Furthermore, pressure from inflationary processes persists: in September, prices rose by 2.1%, reaching an annual rate of 10%, with October price growth estimated at another 1.7–2%.
Impact of the Discount Rate and Global Trends on the Euro
An important event for the financial market will be the National Bank of Ukraine's meeting on October 29, where a decision on the discount rate will be made. Analysts suggest that the rate may remain unchanged at 16% or be increased to 16.5% to curb inflationary risks.
Regarding the depreciation of the European currency, the banker attributes this trend to global international factors. The strengthening of the US dollar in global markets and economic problems within the eurozone are altering the classical EUR/USD ratio, causing the euro exchange rate to move downward even with the relative stability of the American currency.
Foreign Exchange Market Prospects and the Importance of Stability
Maintaining a controlled situation on the foreign exchange market until the end of October allows businesses and citizens to plan their financial activities without panic. The National Bank's efforts to smooth out imbalances, together with the support of international partners, create a reliable foundation for passing through the autumn-winter period. Nevertheless, future dynamics will directly depend on inflation rates, the situation in the energy sector, and the timeliness of external inflows.
