Ukraine is preparing to launch controlled natural gas exports, but, according to analyst estimates, potential supply volumes abroad will be insignificant on the scale of the domestic market. This was stated by ExPro Consulting natural gas market analyst Mykhailo Svyshch in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine. According to him, the estimated export volume will be about 50 million cubic meters per month, and in the first month of trading it may be even lower if not all production companies participate in the auctions.
First Auctions Not Yet Announced
As of mid-October 2026, actual exports of Ukrainian gas outside the country have not yet begun. The Ukrainian Energy Exchange has already published trading regulations, but the first auctions at the time of the expert's statement had not been announced. Production companies will receive the right to put up for sale up to 15% of the volume of gas produced by them in the previous month. "While the first trades have not been announced yet, we have not even seen trading for export, after which contracts will be concluded and real exports will begin," Svyshch explained. Thus, until the actual start of supplies, only the formal procedures of announcing auctions and concluding the first contracts remain.
Export Volume Less Than One Day of Peak Consumption
The expert's key argument concerns scale: even maximum supplies over two months will be less than Ukraine can consume in a single peak winter day. Currently, the country consumes about 30–40 million cubic meters of gas per day during the warm period. This means that the monthly volume of possible exports of 50 million cubic meters corresponds to just over one day of domestic consumption in the off-season. "In the heating season — this, as we have already said, even these 100 million for 2 months of export is less than one day of peak consumption," Svyshch emphasized. The expert also drew attention to the fact that attempts to present the launch of exports as a large-scale event do not correspond to real figures: "When they start whipping up panic that Ukraine is opening exports or something like that — it doesn't quite make sense, because these volumes are approximately 50 million cubic meters per month, maybe even less."
Naftogaz Re-export and Infrastructure Restoration
In parallel with preparations for the new export mechanism, gas re-export through Naftogaz continues to operate. According to Svyshch, the company needs funds both to restore damaged production facilities and for possible gas imports in the first quarter of next year in case of new attacks on infrastructure. Thus, the export component is built into the broader financial strategy of the state operator, aimed at ensuring the stability of gas supply amid ongoing risks to infrastructure.
Foreign Exchange Earnings and Budget Tax Revenues
The Association of Gas Producing Companies of Ukraine emphasizes that controlled exports will bring the state additional foreign exchange earnings and increased tax revenues, and producers — funds for recovery after Russian attacks, object protection, and new drilling. The executive director of the association, Artem Petrenko, previously stated that partial export will provide additional revenues from rent and profit tax. For companies, according to him, this creates guaranteed demand for part of the extracted resource, and for the state — additional funds for the budget. Thus, the economic justification of exports is built not on the scale of supplies, but on the principle of creating a stable sales channel and replenishing the treasury in conditions of a limited domestic market.
Reserves Before the Heating Season
Against the backdrop of preparations for exports, it is important to consider the state of gas storage facilities. According to data previously reported by XAB.info, by the beginning of November 2026, Ukraine can accumulate more than 15 billion cubic meters of gas. According to government estimates, this volume should be sufficient to get through the heating season. This means that even with the launch of exports of 50 million cubic meters per month, the impact on the nationwide reserve will be minimal: for the entire heating season (approximately five months), exports will "consume" no more than 250 million cubic meters, which is less than 1.7% of the accumulated volume. Experts, nevertheless, note that the decision to launch exports is made taking into account the balance between foreign exchange benefits and the security of winter gas supply.
