“We will need even more people”: how the mass exodus of Ukrainians abroad is hitting the labor market and what will happen after the war

Ukraine's labor market is already feeling the effects of the mass departure of citizens abroad: in many sectors there is a shortage of specialists, and according to experts, the problem could become even more acute once the war ends. This was stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine by migration expert, senior researcher at the M.V. Ptuka Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and candidate of economic sciences, Oleksiy Pozniak. In his words, Ukraine currently faces a labor force deficit compared to the pre-war period, and this is primarily due to the fact that a significant number of Ukrainians remain abroad, creating a shortage of specialists across entire industries.

The scale of the labor force deficit

The expert's key argument is that the shortage of personnel is not a temporary disruption but a structural shift: a significant portion of the working-age population continues to live and work abroad, and it is precisely this that creates the gap between the pre-war level of employment and the current reality. Pozniak emphasizes that the deficit is felt “in many sectors,” meaning it is not localized in a single industry but is systemic in nature. This means that companies and institutions are forced to compete for a limited pool of specialists, and vacancies in a number of professions have become chronic.

Post-war recovery and growing demand for personnel

The expert is particularly concerned about the post-war period. Pozniak directly links the scale of future labor force needs to the realization of the investments promised by partner countries: “I really hope that, in the course of our post-war revival, the investments promised by partner countries will actually materialize. Then the demand for labor will increase even more strongly, and we will need an even greater number of people.” Thus, the paradox is that it is precisely the successful recovery of the economy that could worsen the personnel shortage: the more projects are launched, the more hands and specialists will be needed, and according to the expert's forecast, there will be fewer of them.

Length of the war and the decision to return

The second critical factor is the chronology of the conflict. According to Pozniak, the duration of the war directly affects Ukrainians' decision to return from abroad: “The longer the war continues, the fewer of our citizens will decide to return.” This creates a self-reinforcing mechanism: a protracted conflict reduces the flow of returnees, which further worsens the demographic situation and entrenches the problem of labor shortage. The expert thereby points to a direct link between the duration of hostilities and the country's future demographic and personnel potential.

Ways to compensate for the deficit

As a response to the future challenges of the labor market, the expert named three main directions that, in his view, could help Ukraine compensate for the shortage of workers, and emphasized that it is precisely their combination that could be the key to overcoming the problem. At the same time, in the provided version of the interview, the specific list of these three directions is not detailed, so the publication does not provide their breakdown in order not to distort the speaker's position. The fact remains that the expert views compensating for the deficit as a task requiring the simultaneous application of multiple tools, rather than a one-off solution.

Contradictory data

The available materials on the topic show signals in different directions, which is important to present honestly. On the one hand, there is talk of a million-strong exodus of Ukrainians abroad after the start of the full-scale war and of a persistent structural personnel deficit. On the other hand, RBC-Ukraine previously noted that no new large-scale wave of migration comparable to 2022 is observed, although intensified shelling may influence some people's decision to leave the country. In other words, the overall trend toward a deficit does not contradict the fact that the intensity of migration flows does not repeat the peak values of 2022: the problem has shifted from the category of “mass outflow” to the category of “a working-age contingent settled abroad and a chronic shortage of specialists.” Additionally, in the context of the topic it is mentioned that information on border crossings may be taken into account when determining tax residency, however, frequent trips abroad in themselves do not mean automatic claims from the tax authority — this is a separate, but migration-related aspect that should not be conflated with the personnel deficit.