The Ukrainian labor market in June demonstrated an alarming imbalance: the supply of labor continues to grow, while businesses are becoming increasingly cautious in their hiring plans. This is evidenced by the data from the Macroeconomic and Monetary Review of the National Bank of Ukraine for May-June, published by RBC-Ukraine.

Structural gap: 28% vs 4%

Statistics record a significant divergence between the interests of job seekers and the needs of employers. According to the Work.ua portal, the number of resumes increased by 28% over the year. At the same time, demand from the business side, expressed in the number of vacancies, grew by only 4%.

Experts note that the rate of growth of new resumes has begun to slow down slightly, however, the structural gap remains critical. The decline in job seeker activity in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, specialists associate with seasonal factors, but the general trend points to market oversaturation with offers.

Business pessimism and the security factor

In June, businesses worsened hiring forecasts in almost all sectors of the economy, with the exception of construction. This trend correlates directly with the current geopolitical situation: the intensification of Russian attacks on infrastructure and business objects reduces entrepreneurs' optimism regarding future economic growth.

As a result, although the total number of permanent employees in May remained practically unchanged, individual industries show divergent trends, reflecting the economy's adaptation to war conditions.

Wage paradox: growth amidst labor shortages

Despite caution in hiring, the level of remuneration shows growth. According to State Statistics Service data, in May the average salary in Ukraine was about 31 thousand hryvnias. This indicator is due to two main factors:

  • Significant shortage of qualified personnel forces employers to increase wages to retain employees.
  • Slowing annual inflation allows real incomes to grow.

In addition, high wage growth rates are supported by an increase in budget expenditures in the current year. This is especially noticeable in areas financed by the state, such as education and healthcare.