Patriots in Ukraine: from license to the first missile — why will it take years?

Ukraine has received a chance to establish its own production of missiles for Patriot air defense systems — but the main issue is not technology, but time. This is what experts say, as well as Ukrainian Ministry of Defense advisor Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov.

License is just the beginning

After obtaining the license, Ukraine will be able to organize the production of missiles for Patriot. According to Beskrestnov, along with the document, technological maps are transferred, training programs are conducted, supplier contacts are provided, and consultants are sent.

“Do not listen to pessimists. Production of missiles for Patriot in Ukraine is possible,” the advisor emphasized.

The main problem is the timeline

However, even with all conditions met, the process may take a year or more. Exact deadlines cannot be named — much depends on subcontractors who will manufacture individual components.

Becca Wasser, head of the defense sector at Bloomberg Economics, believes that launching production will require significantly more time. According to her, creating a Patriot missile takes years, meaning that mass production in Ukraine is not on the table in the near future.

Technologies under control, supply chains overloaded

American technologies are under strict control, and existing production chains are already overloaded. Moreover, creating a new line will require specialized equipment and personnel training — all of which further increases the timeline.

What experts say

Aerospace expert Konstantin Krivolap suggests that the discussion is primarily about localizing missile production, not the launchers themselves. According to his assessment, creating the infrastructure may take at least a year, followed by another two years to manufacture the first missile. Under the most favorable scenario, production could not start before 2029.

What Trump promised

Earlier, US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would grant Ukraine the right to produce Patriot air defense systems. The American side will also transfer the necessary technologies and show how to organize the production of these systems.

Thus, Ukraine can indeed start producing Patriot missiles — but not in the coming months. Experts agree: the path to domestic production will be long, complex, and require significant resources.