The Ukrainian campaign to isolate occupied Crimea has reached a qualitatively new level. While the previous focus was on destroying ground logistics, the emphasis has now shifted to maritime supply arteries. The primary targets are Russian vessels delivering fuel to the peninsula.
This is evidenced by a fresh report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reviewed by RBC-Ukraine. Experts note that Kyiv has demonstrated rapid adaptation to the enemy's tactical changes.
Tactical shift: from bridge to sea
The reason for the change in the vector of attacks lies in the success of previous operations. Constant strikes by the Ukrainian army of medium and long range on ground routes have put logistics between continental Russia and Crimea at risk. As a result, the occupiers were forced to reorganize and rely on sea transport to address the acute shortage of gasoline.
ISW analysts emphasize: Russia failed to ensure reliable protection of ground routes and is now trying to compensate for losses through the Black and Azov Seas. However, Ukrainian forces are already demonstrating high effectiveness here as well.
Massive strikes on the fleet
Confirmation of this new stage of the campaign was a series of attacks on the night of July 8-9. Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Robert Brovdi, reported a large-scale strike on 14 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov.
According to him, over the last 96 hours, Ukrainian drones struck a total of 35 units of equipment: fuel tankers, bulk carriers, and special vessels. This indicates a systematic approach to destroying the peninsula's supply infrastructure.
Admission of problems in Moscow
The situation with the defense of Crimea is causing concern within Russian security structures as well. On July 6, journalist Dmitry Kozolev published the words of a serving General of the Russian Armed Forces, who admitted Moscow's inability to effectively counter Ukrainian medium-range strikes.
The root of the problem lies in the decisions of 2024, when the Russian General Staff disbanded the Crimea Defense Group. The reasons were a lack of naval equipment and the inability to ensure full protection of the peninsula from modern threats.
Economic consequences for Russia
Fuel problems are systemic and have been growing for several weeks. According to analysts, the actions of Ukrainian drones could have led to the shutdown of up to 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity. The fuel crisis has affected about 50 million citizens of the Russian Federation.
The Kremlin is trying to smooth over the situation, calling the gasoline shortage in annexed Crimea "temporary difficulties." President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to allocate subsidies to Crimea and Sevastopol against the backdrop of a sharp rise in fuel prices, however, experts predict that intensified strikes on sea tankers will continue to disrupt logistics and worsen the peninsula's situation.
