The Government of Ukraine has approved the budget declaration for 2027–2029 — a document that sets the country's economic priorities for the next three years. It outlines plans for real GDP growth, increased citizen income, reduction of the state budget deficit, and enhanced social protection. The Ministry of Finance has prepared two scenarios: a baseline scenario and a resilience scenario, which accounts for potential risks associated with the continuation of hostilities.

Two Scenarios — One Path to Stability

The baseline scenario assumes a significant improvement in the security situation starting in 2027. This will allow the economy to transition from recovery to sustainable growth: new production facilities will open, infrastructure will be restored, and people forced to leave their jobs will return to the labor market.

The resilience scenario ("Plan B") accounts for the risk of prolonged active hostilities. In this case, the state will be forced to revise expenditures towards increasing funding for the defense and security sector.

Economy in Numbers: GDP, Wage, and Export Growth

According to the main forecast, the Ukrainian economy will demonstrate steady growth:

  • Real GDP will grow by 4.5% in 2027, 5.3% in 2028, and reach 6.7% in 2029.
  • Nominal GDP will increase from 11.53 trillion UAH in 2027 to 14.95 trillion UAH in 2029.
  • The average wage will rise from 35,010 UAH in 2027 to 44,083 UAH in 2029.
  • Inflation will slow down: from 8.9% at the end of 2027 to 5.1% in December 2029.
  • Exports of goods and services will grow from $60.4 billion in 2027 to $77.5 billion in 2029.

Financial Independence and Deficit Reduction

The government aims to reduce dependence on external borrowing. The state budget deficit, projected at 18.5% of GDP in 2026, is planned to be reduced to 5.5% of GDP by 2029. This will be made possible through additional fiscal measures and improved fiscal discipline.

All declaration indicators have been coordinated with international partners — the IMF and the European Union. Ukraine continues to fulfill obligations under financial support programs, including Ukraine Facility.

EU Support and New Instruments

In 2026–2027, the EU will provide Ukraine with a new financial support instrument totaling €90 billion. In 2027, the country expects to receive €45 billion. These funds will be directed towards infrastructure restoration, social support, and economic development.

Social Standards and Population Support

Despite the war, the state plans to raise social standards. The budget declaration provides for:

  • Increase in the minimum wage and subsistence minimum.
  • Support for veterans and those affected by Russian aggression.
  • Creating conditions for the return of Ukrainian refugees home.

State Investment Reform and Debt Management

Alongside budget plans, the country will reform the management of state investments — the process will be fully digitized to ensure expenditure transparency. State debt management will also be improved; since the debt mainly consists of long-term concessional loans, this aims to reduce the burden on the economy.

Hryvnia Exchange Rate and Future Forecast

Even in the optimistic scenario, the government factors in a gradual weakening of the hryvnia. The average annual dollar exchange rate may rise from 44.4 UAH in 2026 to 50.7 UAH in 2029. By the end of 2029, the dollar is forecast to cost 51.5 UAH.

Next Steps

The budget declaration approved by the Cabinet of Ministers will serve as the basis for the budgets of the following years. The next step is for the government to submit the document for consideration to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.