US Intelligence: War with Iran Weakened Washington — Ratcliffe Warned Moscow of Escalation

According to The Washington Post, as cited by RBC-Ukraine, US intelligence has concluded that the prolonged military campaign against Iran has significantly weakened Washington's position. Against this backdrop, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during his visit to Moscow, conveyed to the Russian leadership a warning against any further substantial escalation against Ukraine.

The Kremlin's Assessment: Washington Is Exhausted

According to the publication, Ratcliffe's trip to the Russian capital was preceded by new intelligence on how the Kremlin assesses the strategic position of the United States. Russian leadership, this information suggests, believes that the war with Iran has exhausted part of Washington's capacity, and Moscow may view this as an opportunity to increase pressure on US interests and on US allies in Europe. The newspaper's sources did not disclose exactly how this information was obtained or how confident analysts are in its reliability.

Ratcliffe's Warning to Moscow

The details of the CIA Director's talks with the Russian leadership remain classified. However, one source for The Washington Post reported that Ratcliffe warned Moscow: any further substantial intensification of the war against Ukraine could have negative consequences for Russia itself. According to the source, the purpose of the visit was not only to assess the situation of Russian troops, which have failed to achieve a breakthrough on the front, but also the fact that Moscow presumably perceives the United States as exhausted by the prolonged campaign and unable to intervene actively. Ratcliffe also made it clear that a large-scale escalation could shift President Donald Trump's position and push him toward more active support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Secrecy of the Visit by Trump's Order

As sources recall, Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow this week took place under conditions of heightened secrecy by the personal order of the US President. According to sources, the White House chief did not disclose the details of the trip even to some of his closest advisers or to members of the military leadership. The intelligence assessment that formed the basis of the talks emerged against the backdrop of reports of declining combat readiness of US forces and a shortage of ammunition due to the prolonged campaign against Iran.

Contradictory Data

Here the versions of the parties diverge. On the one hand, the intelligence assessment reported by The Washington Post points to a real shortage of ammunition and a decline in the combat readiness of the US military after the Iranian campaign. On the other — US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have publicly denied any serious shortage, while at the same time pressing weapons manufacturers to accelerate production. Moreover, the newspaper's sources did not disclose the methodology used to obtain information on the mood in the Kremlin or the level of confidence in its reliability, leaving room for doubt about the accuracy of this assessment.

Context and Possible Consequences

The combination of two factors — Moscow's perception of the US as weakened and Ratcliffe's direct warning — forms a new round of unofficial diplomacy against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. If the Russian leadership truly interprets the Iranian campaign as a signal of Washington's vulnerability, this could encourage attempts to increase pressure on European capitals and on US allies. At the same time, the CIA's argument that escalation could shift Trump's position in Zelenskyy's favor serves as a deterrent. The outcomes of the classified talks have not yet been disclosed.