Warsaw has received alarming signals from Washington: the US has warned Polish leadership of impending armed provocations by Russia. According to sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Moscow is planning a series of incidents in the coming months capable of destabilizing the situation on the NATO border.
Scenarios of a hybrid attack
Intelligence data points to several possible courses of action by the aggressor. The most likely scenario is considered to be drone strikes on critical infrastructure facilities, such as power plants. The possibility of simulating air attacks designed to provoke Poland into activating air defense systems is also being considered.
However, sources do not rule out more radical measures. The possibility of a short-term ground invasion by Russian or Belarusian troops into border regions is at risk. The attack could be carried out both from the territory of Belarus and from the Kaliningrad region.
The Kremlin's diplomatic calculation
The main goal of the planned provocations is not military advancement, but political pressure. Moscow hopes to force Warsaw to sit down at the negotiating table under pressure from Washington, while avoiding open military resistance. The Kremlin considers a scenario in which Russian troops are withdrawn from Polish territory as a result of political agreements as a "victory".
Standard fakes may be used to justify the invasion: from "GPS failure" to staging a "rescue operation" for a helicopter that allegedly crashed. In the subsequent negotiations, Russia may demand the cessation of military support for Ukraine in exchange for the withdrawal of its forces.
Risks for the entire region
Polish intelligence services also warn of Russia's attempt to cynically blame Ukraine itself for organizing these provocations. Similar risks are being discussed in relation to the Baltic states. Intelligence notes that Moscow is trying to test the readiness of the US to protect the smallest members of the Alliance.
These threats fit into a broader context of Russian intelligence activities. Earlier, The Guardian reported that over 18 months, Russia had conducted a spy operation against strategic nuclear facilities in EU countries, using drones launched from "shadow fleet" ships.
