Global climate change has ceased to be an abstract threat of the future. For Ukraine's coastal territories, it is already a concrete challenge requiring immediate attention. Experts warn: if urgent measures are not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a significant part of the country's southern regions could end up underwater by the end of the current century.
Acceleration of Processes: From Stagnation to Growth
For millennia, the level of the World Ocean remained practically unchanged. As noted by Sofiya Sadogurska, an expert from the climate department of the public organization "Ecodiya", over the last 3,000 years, fluctuations did not exceed 0.2 mm per year. However, in the 20th and 21st centuries, the situation has changed radically.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, between 1901 and 2010, the average global sea level rose by almost 20 cm. Moreover, the rate of this growth is not slowing down but accelerating, creating a real threat to coastal zones.
"Water is Close" Research
To assess the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine, a framework study titled "Water is Close" was conducted. Its goal is to analyze the impact of global climate processes on the coastal territories of the southern regions.
The results of the specialists' work look alarming. If current rates of greenhouse gas emissions are maintained, by the year 2100, an area of almost 650 thousand hectares in Ukraine could be submerged. If additional natural factors, such as storm surges, are taken into account, this figure could rise to 1 million hectares.
Scale of the Threat
To realize the scale of the losses, a comparison is worth noting: the area of potentially submerged territories is comparable to the size of Ternopil Oblast. These are colossal land resources that could be lost for agriculture, industry, and human habitation.
The greatest impact will be on coastal zones, however, experts emphasize that the forecasts are probabilistic in nature. As Sadogurska clarified, this does not mean that the territories will necessarily end up underwater, but preparation for such scenarios is necessary. In the event that the most pessimistic forecasts of scientists come true and warming by the end of the century exceeds 4°C, the consequences will be irreversible.