Ukraine is facing a massive climate transformation that is radically altering the country's water balance. While threats were previously perceived as abstract forecasts, experts today speak of specific risks to ecological security and the economy. The main feature of current changes is a sharp contrast: the south of the country is facing a critical moisture deficit, while the north and the Carpathians are preparing for intensified flooding.
The South: The Threat of Disappearing Rivers
The most alarming situation is developing in the southern regions. According to Sofiya Sadogurska, an expert from the climate department of the public organization "Ekodiya," forecasts indicate a constant decrease in water runoff. This phenomenon poses a direct threat to the water supply of the population and the economy.
Specialists warn of the possibility of the complete disappearance of small rivers in the southern regions. The loss of these water arteries could lead to irreversible changes in the region's landscape and ecosystems, exacerbating problems that arose after the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP.
The North and Carpathians: The Era of Intense Floods
While the south dries up, northern territories and the Carpathian region are facing the opposite problem. In Polissia and the mountains, there is a trend towards increasing flood intensity. At certain times of the year, these regions may face powerful floods, requiring a revision of strategies for protecting territories and infrastructure.
Floods on the Horizon of 2100
In addition to river processes, Ukraine is facing the global threat of rising sea levels. The "Water is Close" study, modeling scenarios up to 2100, paints a grim picture for coastal territories.
If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, by the end of the century, almost 650,000 hectares of Ukrainian territory could be underwater. Taking into account natural factors such as storm surges, this figure could reach 1 million hectares. For comparison: the area of potential flooding is equal to the area of the entire Ternopil region.
Zones of Maximum Risk
The Kherson and Odesa regions, as well as Crimea, are at the greatest risk. Experts emphasize that, although these scenarios are calculated for a temperature rise of more than 4 degrees and are pessimistic, it is necessary to prepare for such challenges right now.
The problem is exacerbated by the consequences of the breach of the Kakhovka reservoir dam. The latest study by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine showed that in the Kherson region, losses of areas under certain agricultural crops reached from 71% to 98%. This indicates that climate challenges are already dealing a tangible blow to the country's economy and food security.