The opening round of the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup has already identified the first favorites and underdogs in the race for a spot in the Round of 16. Thanks to the tournament's updated format, which allows not only group winners and runners-up but also the eight best third-placed teams to advance to the playoffs, every result is crucial.
Favorites: the power of draws
The situation in the aggregate table of third-place teams has already clearly divided the national teams into two camps. Those who managed to draw in their opening matches have significantly improved their chances of continuing the fight. The Netherlands lead this group, occupying the top spot in the interim rankings thanks to their high scoring rate.
Following the Dutch are the national teams of Brazil, Belgium, Qatar, and Portugal. All these teams currently have identical statistics, promising a fierce battle for qualification spots in the future. Spain rounds out the six "peaceful" teams. Although the Spanish have not scored a single goal, they have not conceded either, allowing them to remain in the zone of real contenders.
Zone of risk: the price of defeat
In contrast to the successful starters, another six teams began the tournament with defeats. This circumstance has significantly complicated their tournament position. Czechia and Ecuador, despite their failures, currently occupy the top-8 qualifying spots, remaining a step away from the playoffs.
The most critical situation has arisen for Senegal, Jordan, and Turkey. These national teams lost their opening matches by a margin of two goals, knocking them out of the leaders of the third-place table. It is worth noting the situation with Turkey: the team failed to score a single goal, which puts their chances of further participation in the tournament at risk.
Rules of the game
Recall that the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup will feature the top two teams from each group, as well as eight of the twelve teams that finish in third place. Given that every goal scored and point earned is already influencing the fate of the teams, the upcoming matches promise to be extremely tense.