The Russian government has decided to write off budget debts for six more regions of the country. The total amount of debt forgiveness amounted to 37.5 billion rubles, which in world currencies is equivalent to approximately $525 million. This decision became another step in an attempt to stabilize the financial situation at the local level, however, Ukrainian intelligence sees in this a sign of an impending systemic crisis.

Who fell under the write-off

The subjects of the federation with a different economic profile fell under the mechanism of debt write-off. The list included the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Tatarstan and the Khabarovsk Territory. Debts were also annulled for Vladimir, Kurgan and Omsk regions. These measures are intended to relieve regional budgets, which are under colossal pressure.

Deficit forecast and "problem" status

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service (SBU) of Ukraine, the situation in the Russian economy is far from stable. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation forecasts that the combined deficit of regional budgets by 2026 may reach 1.9 trillion rubles (about $26.6 billion). At the moment, more than 20 Russian regions officially have the status of financially problematic.

SVR experts highlight three main reasons pushing regions to collapse:

  • Reduction of tax revenues to the treasury.
  • Unjustified increase in social spending.
  • Growth of burden due to military spending, part of which the federal authorities are shifting onto the shoulders of the regions.

Systemic "financial pardon"

The practice of debt write-off for Russian subjects of the federation has ceased to be a one-time action and has become systemic. The intelligence service notes that in 2025, 58 regions used this mechanism, which allowed them to reduce their debt portfolio by about $3.2 billion. In 2026, according to the latest data, 54 regions have already been released from debt obligations for about $2.4 billion.

"In fact, the Kremlin is forced to conduct a mass financial pardon of its own subjects annually so that they do not declare default live," the Foreign Intelligence Service emphasizes.

Dependence on the center and military spending

The Ukrainian department believes that the current situation demonstrates the growing dependence of the regions on the federal center, which is exacerbated by the war. The own revenue base of the regions is not growing, expenses are not decreasing, and the military economy is sucking resources faster than they are being restored. Debt write-off gives regions only short-term relief, but does not eliminate any of the deep-rooted causes of the crisis.

Recall that Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure have already cost the Kremlin billions of dollars and significantly reduced oil export revenues, as previously reported by The Economist. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is hiding a serious economic crisis, despite Vladimir Putin's statements about stability and good performance. These data are based on intelligence information coming from within the Russian system.