Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking with journalists, addressed the prospects of economic rapprochement between Russia and the US against the backdrop of the ongoing diesel agreement. In his assessment, Moscow is capable of offering Washington what he termed an "economic marriage"—a package of conditions including energy resources, fertilizers, gas, and the lifting of sanctions on frozen assets. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader emphasized that such an alliance is unlikely to be beneficial to the US in the long term, since every Russian agreement, according to him, contains an "unpleasant part that is not immediately visible."
The Diesel Agreement as a Precedent for Further Concessions
Zelenskyy directly linked the current diesel supply agreement to a potential chain of subsequent steps by Washington. "I believe that the 'diesel agreement' opens up opportunities for Russians for further similar steps. These include, in particular, fertilizers, gas, frozen assets, and other names and structures from which sanctions can be lifted," the president stated. He also noted that part of this process has already taken place: sanctions have been lifted from a number of Russian oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin. Thus, in Zelenskyy's logic, the diesel deal was not an isolated decision, but the first link in a broader sequence of sanctions relief.
Moscow’s Resource Leverage and "Vertical Governance"
The Ukrainian leader drew attention to the fact that Russia consciously uses its position as a country with vast natural reserves and centralized control over them. "Russia understands that they, unlike other countries of the world, possess such natural resources, opportunities, reserves, and such vertical governance over all this, that they can truly offer America a kind of 'economic marriage'—however regrettable it may sound," Zelenskyy said. According to him, energy resources are a key part of the Russian offer, and the vertical governance model allows Moscow to coordinate the terms of the deal at the state level, turning raw material advantages into a negotiating tool.
Short-Term Gains Versus Long-Term Risks
Central to Zelenskyy's statement was a warning about the difference between visible short-term gains and hidden long-term costs. "It is unlikely that such a 'marriage' can be beneficial to America in the long term, because Russia has some unpleasant part in every agreement that is not immediately visible, but somewhere along the short path it might seem that there could be benefits," the president explained. He did not disclose the specific content of these "unpleasant parts," but pointed to the systemic nature of the problem: it is not about one specific clause of the agreement, but about a model of interaction in which initial concessions open the space for further demands.
Context: Positions of Washington and the Kremlin on the Diesel Deal
In the US, as RBC-Ukraine reminds, there is a conviction that the diesel agreement with Russia should demonstrate to Moscow the economic benefit of ending the war against Ukraine. Thus, in Washington, the deal is viewed primarily as an instrument of pressure on the Kremlin to achieve a peaceful settlement. In the Kremlin, in turn, they announced their intention to fully restore diesel export volumes after signing the agreement with the US, as well as preparations for the first delivery and the possibility of expanding the circle of buyers on the global market. The difference in emphases—demonstrating the benefit of ending hostilities for the American side and restoring export flows for the Russian side—emphasizes that each party sees the deal primarily as the achievement of its own goals.
Sanctions Context and the Role of the Russian Direct Investment Fund
Additional context to Zelenskyy's statement is provided by information previously published by The New York Times: the US is considering the possibility of lifting sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, with Russia insisting on this step during supply negotiations. This episode confirms the Ukrainian president's thesis that sanctions relief has already become part of the negotiating process and that the diesel agreement acts as a catalyst for expanding the circle of individuals and structures subject to the removal of restrictions. For Ukraine, where the issue of sanctions pressure on Russia remains one of the key elements of the containment strategy, such dynamics pose serious concern.
