Ukrainian defense forces have managed to improve their positions on the battlefield in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts over the past week, while also successfully disrupting several new offensive operations by Russian troops. This is evidenced by the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which RBC-Ukraine highlights with reference to geolocation data and statements from Ukrainian commanders. Overall, the picture painted by the analysts indicates that the initiative in a number of key sectors has shifted to the Ukrainian side, while Russia's assault operations on September 14–15 did not lead to any notable advance across most of the front.
Kupiansk Axis: Counterattacks and Disrupted Assaults
On the Kupiansk and Borove axes, Russian troops continued assault operations on September 14 and 15 but failed to advance. Ukrainian forces, by contrast, launched counterattacks and pushed the enemy back. According to a source linked to Russia's Western Group of Forces, on September 15 the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) struck Russian salients to the north and southeast of Kupiansk. Against this backdrop, Russian units are attempting to shrink the Ukrainian bridgehead southeast of the city amid the deterioration of their own position near Kupiansk. AFU Joint Forces spokesperson Colonel Viktor Tregubov reported on September 15 that the occupiers had intensified activity along the left bank of the Oskil River, particularly in the Kyvsharivka direction, in an attempt to narrow the territory held by Ukrainian forces. At the same time, he noted, Russian units for the most part have been unable to hold ground on the right bank of the Oskil closer to Kupiansk and are gradually losing territory there.
'Vivaldi' Operation Near Lyman
On September 15, Ukrainian forces officially confirmed for the first time the conduct of a counteroffensive operation against a Russian salient to the northwest of Lyman. Commander of the AFU 3rd Army Corps, Major General Andrii Beletsky, stated that Ukrainian forces are carrying out the 'Vivaldi' operation, aimed at Russian positions north of Lyman. ISW analysts emphasized that this operation has achieved an important operational objective — disrupting Russia's efforts to carry out a wide encirclement of the so-called Ukrainian Fortress Belt. Thus, the confirmed counterstrike near Lyman becomes one of the most significant events of the week on the front.
Advances on the Drobuvka and Huliaipole Axes
At the same time, Ukrainian forces advanced to the southwest of Drobuvka. Geolocation footage released on September 14 indicates AFU advances in the southwestern part of Bilytske north of Pokrovsk. In addition, Ukrainian forces may have advanced or held their positions in the western part of the settlement, despite Russian claims of their own advance. Geolocation videos also confirm Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions west of Novyi Donbas, located east of Drobuvka, which may indicate Ukrainian advances or retention of positions in this area. On the Huliaipole axis, Russian troops continued offensive operations on September 14–15, but to no avail, while Ukrainian forces recently advanced or held positions in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Russian units, meanwhile, conducted only limited attacks west of Orikhiv. East of Sloviansk (the Kryva Luka area and the direction toward Myrnohrad), as well as near Kramatorsk and in the direction of Druzhkivka, Russian assaults also yielded no confirmed advance.
Contradictory Data
There are notable discrepancies in the sources regarding the dynamics in certain sectors. The Russian side claims advances of its troops in the Bilytske area and west of Novyi Donbas, however the geolocation data relied upon by ISW points rather to Ukrainian advances or retention of positions in these locations. A similar mismatch is observed on the Kupiansk axis: Russian command speaks of intensified offensive operations, while ISW records the absence of any confirmed advance and, conversely, AFU counterattacks pushing the enemy back. These contradictions are characteristic of the information war and require cautious interpretation until additional independent confirmations emerge.
Outlook and the Resource Factor
In the analysts' assessment, autumn conditions may contribute to further stabilization of the front line on the Kupiansk axis. Colonel Tregubov also noted that in the coming weeks Russia likely does not have sufficient resources for a large-scale offensive, although the situation could change if Russian command transfers additional forces to this axis. Separately, RBC-Ukraine reported that Major General Denys 'Redys' Prokopenko has taken command of the 'Azov' group of forces, which will operate in Donbas, which may affect the distribution of forces in the combat zone in the coming weeks.
