Apple Admits for the First Time: Regulatory Pressure Is Hitting Its Services Revenue

For years, Apple has built a closed software ecosystem with its own payment methods, in which the company's commission could reach 30% of the transaction amount within the App Store. However, the terms of joining this model have begun to strain partners and regulators around the world, and the American tech giant is now actively suing them over the right to keep high commission rates. Notably, in recent documents submitted to US regulators, Apple itself explicitly acknowledges that such legal activity could, in the long run, lead to a significant drop in the company's core revenue.

Services Segment: Growth Below Expectations

Apple's revenue in the services segment consistently exceeds $30 billion per quarter. For the most recent quarter, the company reported nearly $31 billion, up 12.1% year over year. However, this result came in below UBS analysts' expectations. The profit margin in this area was 75.6%, which formally looks impressive, but even this figure disappointed investors. Thus, even with absolute revenue growth, margins and dynamics have stopped pleasing the market.

Courts and Regulators: The Battlefield Expands

Courts in many countries and regions are working to force Apple to drop commissions of up to 30% on payments within its proprietary ecosystem. The company resists even when courts order it to give customers the right to pay through alternative systems, adding its own commission to such transactions as well — a practice regulators are also trying to challenge. In the European Union, South Korea, and Brazil, authorities have already forced Apple to open alternative payment channels, while in the UK and Australia court proceedings on the issue are still ongoing. In the US, the Supreme Court had to revisit the Epic Games dispute case after it emerged that the plaintiff's earlier requirements had not been met by Apple following the previous lawsuit.

The Financial Footprint of Enforcement

According to Appfigures, Apple's commission-based revenue in the US has fallen by 18% since the start of the year, while in Brazil and Japan the decline began after new payment requirements were introduced. In the EU, Apple was already fined €500 million last year for violating the Digital Markets Act. Under these conditions, it is only natural that this enforcement practice is beginning to affect the company's confidence in its ability to keep earning on commissions at the same scale.

Contradictory Data

It is important to note a discrepancy in the versions here. On the one hand, in Apple's reporting, services revenue grew by 12.1% year over year, while consumer spending in the App Store worldwide, according to Sensor Tower, increased by 3% in the second quarter (versus 13% a year earlier). On the other hand, the same Sensor Tower records a 6% decline in App Store revenue in the second quarter, whereas a year earlier customer spending in this ecosystem showed 9% growth, and Appfigures estimates an 18% drop in commission revenue in the US. The difference is explained by the fact that the sources measure different metrics: total consumer spending, store revenue, and Apple's net commission fees. But for the reader the picture looks contradictory: audience spending is formally rising, while the money the company extracts from that spending is falling. In addition to users' willingness to pay by bypassing the proprietary ecosystem, analysts say this dynamic was also affected by a worsening macroeconomic environment.

What This Means for the Market

The combination of court losses, fines, and the mandatory opening of alternative payment channels creates a sustained risk to one of Apple's most margin-rich revenue lines. If enforcement practice in the EU, the US, Asia, and Latin America continues to tighten, the company may lose the ability to earn on customers' financial transactions conducted through third-party payment systems. For the market, this is a signal: the era of a fully controlled ecosystem with a fixed 30% commission is coming to an end, and Apple's services segment, long considered the 'perpetual engine' of profit, is becoming vulnerable.