The Ukrainian currency market is entering the second half of August 2026 without signs of a sharp trend reversal. Despite traditional seasonal expectations and pessimistic forecasts, which usually intensify with the onset of autumn, the hryvnia retains signs of relative stability. Experts note that the key factors influencing the exchange rate are currently in balance, allowing for the preservation of the current range of fluctuations.
Interbank forecast: dollar and euro in a narrow corridor
Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, announced specific figures for the period from August 17 to 23. According to his estimates, the dollar rate on the interbank market will be within the range of 44.6–45.2 UAH. As for the euro, its cost, according to the forecast, will fluctuate in the range of 51–52.5 UAH. This scenario implies the absence of fundamental reasons for a sharp collapse or surge in the national currency in the coming weeks.
Market psychology: "Emotional vault" instead of investments
Despite the stability of the figures, the expert draws attention to an important psychological factor. In August 2026, the information background is becoming tense again, which affects the behavior of citizens. Intensive shelling and damage to infrastructure increase uncertainty, forcing part of the population to buy currency not for profit, but for a psychological sense of security.
"The dollar is often perceived not as an investment, but as an emotional "vault". A person buys currency not because they have calculated the possible return, but because they strive to at least partially restore the feeling of control over their own savings," Lesovoy explained. This can lead to short-term spikes in demand in the cash market, when exchange offices are forced to raise the selling rate and widen the spread, however, such fluctuations do not form a new long-term trend.
Hryvnia support factors: NBU rate and deposits
The National Bank of Ukraine continues to play a key role in stabilizing the exchange rate. The "managed flexibility" regime allows the regulator to smooth out excessive movements without tying the hryvnia to a rigid fixed rate. An additional supporting factor was the increase in the discount rate to 15.5%, which makes hryvnia instruments more attractive for savings.
According to the banker's estimates, six-month deposits at a rate of around 17.5% per annum can become a real alternative to buying currency. "Profitable hryvnia deposits can attract up to 20-25% of citizens' free savings. Part of the funds that could have gone to the cash currency market will remain in the banking system," the expert believes.
Import risks and the battle between figures and sentiments
Importers, especially companies purchasing energy resources and fuel, may exert certain pressure on the market. Due to the unstable situation in the global oil market, they may be more actively forming currency reserves, which creates demand for dollars. However, despite these risks, the expert does not expect a significant weakening of the hryvnia in the near future. The main challenge of the coming weeks will be the battle between real economic figures and public sentiment, with the figures currently pointing to relative stability.
